The U.S. stock market is experiencing a relatively calm midday session on Thursday, December 4, 2025, with major indexes hovering near their all-time highs as investors keenly anticipate the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision. This follows a strong run over the past week, fueled by increasing expectations of a rate cut.
Midday Market Momentum
Midday trading patterns show a market grappling with mixed signals. While the overall sentiment leans towards optimism due to potential Fed easing, there's also a cautious undertone regarding stretched valuations, particularly in the technology sector. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) are within striking distance of their record closing levels, having rallied significantly over the past eight trading sessions. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (IXIC), while slightly underperforming some of its counterparts today, remains about 2% below its own all-time high set in late October.
Futures contracts earlier indicated a mixed open, with Dow futures slightly up, S&P 500 futures flat, and Nasdaq 100 futures marginally down. This midday period reflects a continuation of that trend, with investors digesting recent corporate earnings and economic data while positioning themselves ahead of the crucial Fed meeting. The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher, while WTI crude futures have risen, and gold futures ticked higher. Bitcoin, after a recent slide, is holding steady near $93,000.
Major Index Performance
As of midday, the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) is virtually unchanged, remaining just 0.6% below its all-time high. It has gained 0.26% from the previous session, reaching 6868 points. Over the past month, the S&P 500 has climbed 1.05% and is up 13.04% compared to this time last year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is up a modest 9 points, or less than 0.1%. On Wednesday, the Dow had climbed 408.44 points, or 0.9%, to 47,882.90, bringing it within 1% of its all-time closing high. The Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) is slightly lower, down 0.1% today. Yesterday, it rose 40.42 points, or 0.2%, to 23,454.09. The Nasdaq entered the day about 2% below its record closing level.
The recent rally across these indexes has been driven by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting.
Upcoming Market Events
The most significant upcoming market event is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, scheduled for December 9 and 10. Market participants are pricing in a high likelihood, approximately 80% to 89%, of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at this meeting. This expectation is largely influenced by recent dovish commentary from Fed officials and weaker-than-expected private-sector employment data for November, which showed a decline of 32,000 jobs against an expected increase of 40,000. This report is seen as the final monthly jobs reading before the Fed's meeting.
Beyond the Fed meeting, investors are also awaiting key economic data. Tomorrow, Friday, December 5, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data, a crucial inflation gauge for the Fed, is scheduled for release. This data was delayed due to a recent government shutdown. Additionally, the U.S. weekly jobless claims report was released earlier today, coming in at 191,000 for the week ending November 29, well below expectations. While strong, these numbers are largely seen as holiday-distorted, reinforcing rate cut expectations.
Major Stock News and Developments
Several major public companies are making headlines today with significant stock price movements and corporate announcements:
- Salesforce (CRM) shares rose about 3.5% after the software giant reported better-than-expected quarterly profit and raised its outlook, citing growth from its data products and AI offerings.
- Meta Platforms (META) saw its shares jump 4% following reports that the Facebook parent is expected to slash spending on its "metaverse" initiatives. This news contributed to Meta leading the Nasdaq's gains.
- Nvidia (NVDA), the world's most valuable company and a key player in AI, was up 2.5% in midday trading. The "Magnificent Seven" large-cap technology stocks, including Nvidia, are a significant driver of the S&P 500's value, with Nvidia alone accounting for about 8% of the index.
- Dollar General (DG) surged 12% to lead the S&P 500 gainers after reporting a stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected, driven by increased customer traffic and improved profit margins.
- Kroger (KR) fell 6% to lead S&P 500 decliners after reporting its third-quarter 2025 results. While the company delivered 2.6% identical sales growth without fuel and adjusted EPS of $1.05, it also reported an operating loss of $(1,541) million due to previously announced impairment charges related to its automated fulfillment network.
- UiPath (PATH) soared 21% after the automation platform provider posted stronger revenue than forecast.
- Snowflake (SNOW) sank 11% after the data-warehousing software group reported slowing product-revenue growth.
- Hormel (HRL) rose 2.8% after reporting better-than-expected profit, boosted by strong performance in its Planters nuts and Jennie-O turkey offerings, and provided an optimistic outlook for the upcoming year.
- Five Below (FIVE) also ticked higher following its earnings report.
- BMO Financial Group (BMO) reported its fourth-quarter and fiscal 2025 results, with reported net income for fiscal 2025 increasing to $8,725 million, up from $7,327 million in the prior year. The bank's Capital Markets segment saw a significant increase in net income.
In other corporate news, Infosys (INFY) is seeing strong client interest in establishing India-based Global Capability Centres (GCCs). Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) received government approval to extend its chairman and CEO's re-employment for an additional year. Pine Labs reported a consolidated net profit in Q2 FY26, a significant turnaround from a loss in the same quarter last year, with revenue rising 17.82%.
The market remains dynamic, with investors closely watching these corporate developments and economic indicators as they navigate the final trading days leading up to the Federal Reserve's pivotal decision next week.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.