Next week brings critical economic data amidst strong Fed rate cut expectations. Monday at 10:00 AM EST features ISM Manufacturing PMI, expected to remain in contraction. Wednesday sees ADP Employment Change at 8:15 AM EST and ISM Services PMI at 10:00 AM EST, both high-impact for labor and services sector health. The week culminates Friday at 8:30 AM EST with Core PCE Price Index data, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, critical for rate outlook. Markets are pricing an 84.7% chance of a December Fed rate cut, intensifying scrutiny on these releases.
Traders should brace for heightened volatility, especially around Wednesday's employment and services data and Friday's PCE inflation report. Stronger-than-expected data could temper dovish Fed expectations, potentially strengthening the USD, while weaker prints would reinforce rate cut bets and pressure the dollar further.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.