Key Takeaways
- Global goods trade growth is projected to moderate significantly in the second half of 2025, following a robust first-half surge, with the World Trade Organization's (WTO) Goods Trade Barometer falling to 101.8 for September from 102.2 in June.
- Higher tariffs and lingering trade policy uncertainty are expected to weigh heavily on merchandise trade growth through the remainder of 2025 and into 2026, leading to a revised forecast for 2026 growth down to 0.5% from an earlier 1.8% estimate.
- Despite the anticipated slowdown, trade volume is likely to grow more slowly in the fourth quarter but remain above trend, partly driven by importers frontloading purchases ahead of expected tariff increases and a surge in AI-related goods trade.
- Hungary has secured continued crude oil and natural gas supplies from Russia according to existing contracts, as confirmed by Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó following a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
Global Trade Outlook Dims for H2 2025
Global goods trade growth appears to have slowed in the second half of 2025, following a stronger-than-expected surge in the first half. The World Trade Organization (WTO) reported that its Goods Trade Barometer, a composite leading indicator for world trade, fell to 101.8 for September, down from 102.2 in June. While this reading remains above the baseline trend of 100, indicating above-trend trade volumes, it signals a moderation in the pace of expansion. The first-half surge was largely attributed to importers frontloading purchases ahead of anticipated tariff increases.
The WTO anticipates that trade volume is likely to grow more slowly in the fourth quarter but should remain above trend. This resilience in the first half of 2025 was also significantly boosted by a surge in trade of AI-related goods, which accounted for nearly half of the overall trade expansion and rose 20% year-on-year in value terms. Products such as semiconductors, processors, telecommunications equipment, cloud servers, and finished computers were key drivers of this growth.
Tariffs and Policy Uncertainty Weigh Heavily
Higher tariffs and lingering trade policy uncertainty are expected to be significant factors weighing on merchandise trade growth through the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. The WTO has sharply lowered its 2026 forecast for global merchandise trade volume growth to 0.5%, a substantial revision down from its previous estimate of 1.8% growth in August. This reflects the anticipated delayed drag on international commerce from U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs, with the full impact expected to be felt in 2026.
The frontloading of imports, particularly in North America ahead of tariff hikes, helped cushion the initial impact in the first half of 2025. However, the WTO warns that this improvement is temporary, and the unwinding of these accumulated inventories, coupled with slowing GDP growth, is expected to reduce demand later in the year and into next. The organization's Director-General, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, expressed concern about the "bleaker" outlook for next year, emphasizing that tariff uncertainty continues to heavily impact business confidence, investment, and supply chains.
Hungary Secures Energy Deal with Russia
In a separate but economically significant development, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó announced that Russia will continue to deliver crude oil and natural gas supplies to Hungary in accordance with existing contracts. This assurance followed a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Moscow. Szijjártó emphasized that Hungary maintains a sovereign foreign policy, underscoring the importance of these energy supplies for the nation. This agreement provides a degree of energy security for Hungary amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.