COGT Technical Analysis

Regime-Adaptive Scoring — Our composite scoring model dynamically adjusts category weights based on the current market regime (detected via ADX). In trending markets, Trend and Relative Strength receive the highest weights. In ranging markets, Momentum and Volatility are emphasized. This adaptive approach avoids the common pitfall of applying trend-following signals during range-bound conditions, or mean-reversion signals during strong trends.

ADX (Average Directional Index) measures trend strength on a 0–100 scale, regardless of direction. Readings above 25 indicate a strong trend (either up or down), while readings below 20 suggest a range-bound, trendless market. DI+ and DI− show whether bulls or bears are driving the trend. ADX is used as the primary regime classifier in our scoring model, dynamically adjusting category weights between trending, ranging, and transitional environments.

Supertrend is an ATR-based trend-following indicator that plots dynamic support and resistance bands around price. When price is above the Supertrend band, the trend is bullish; below indicates bearish. Our system evaluates three calibrations — Short (ATR 7, ×2.0), Medium (ATR 10, ×3.0), and Long (ATR 14, ×4.0) — to capture momentum shifts across different timeframes. Triple alignment is a high-conviction trend signal.

Ichimoku Cloud (Ichimoku Kinko Hyo) is a comprehensive Japanese technical system that defines support/resistance, trend direction, and momentum in a single view. The Tenkan-sen (conversion line) and Kijun-sen (base line) generate crossover signals. The Kumo (cloud), formed by Senkou Span A and B, acts as dynamic support/resistance. The Chikou Span (lagging line) confirms trend direction. Our 5-point scorecard rates each component for a composite assessment from −5 to +5.

RSI (Relative Strength Index) is a momentum oscillator ranging from 0 to 100 that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. Readings above 70 are considered overbought; below 30 are oversold. We analyze RSI at three periods — 5 (short-term exhaustion), 14 (standard), and 21 (structural support) — with divergence detection on the 14-period to identify high-reliability reversal signals.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) tracks the relationship between two exponential moving averages. We compute MACD at three calibrations — Short (5/13/5) for rapid signals, Medium (12/26/9) as the standard setting with divergence detection, and Long (24/52/18) for macro shifts. The histogram visualizes momentum strength; crossovers of the MACD and signal line generate trade signals.

ATR (Average True Range) measures absolute daily price movement. ATR at period 7 captures short-term volatility for reactive stop widening; period 14 is the standard for trailing stops at 2–2.5× ATR. The ATR percentile rank classifies the current volatility regime (Low, Normal, High, Breakout), and the ATR-based stop calculator provides position-sizing reference levels at multiple multipliers.

TTM Squeeze detects periods of low volatility that often precede explosive price moves. It fires when Bollinger Bands contract inside Keltner Channels, indicating abnormal compression. The accompanying momentum histogram shows the likely breakout direction. Squeeze duration correlates with the magnitude of the subsequent move — longer squeezes often produce larger breakouts.

Relative Strength (RS) Rating measures how a stock performs compared to the overall market (SPY). The RS Line divides the stock's price by SPY — a rising RS Line means outperformance. RS Rating (1–99) is a percentile rank across all rated securities. Above 80 identifies market leaders; a new high in the RS Line before price makes a new high (the "Blue Dot" signal) is one of the most powerful leading breakout indicators.