Par yield as of September 9, 2026 · official U.S. Treasury data
| Date | Yield | Change |
|---|---|---|
| September 9, 2026 | 4.43% | +4 bp |
| September 8, 2026 | 4.39% | +2 bp |
| September 4, 2026 | 4.37% | +3 bp |
| September 3, 2026 | 4.34% | -5 bp |
| September 2, 2026 | 4.39% | +0 bp |
| September 1, 2026 | 4.39% | +5 bp |
| August 31, 2026 | 4.34% | +0 bp |
| August 28, 2026 | 4.34% | +14 bp |
| August 27, 2026 | 4.20% | +1 bp |
| August 26, 2026 | 4.19% | — |
The 2-year Treasury yield is the market’s cleanest read on where the Federal Reserve is heading. Short enough that it is dominated by the expected path of policy rates over the next couple of years, long enough that it moves on expectations rather than just today’s fed funds setting, it is the maturity traders watch when they want to know what the market thinks the Fed will do next.
A 2-year note is, in effect, a bet on the average overnight rate over the next twenty-four months. If the market expects cuts, the 2-year falls below the current fed funds rate; if it expects hikes, it trades above. That makes the gap between the 2-year and the fed funds target one of the most direct expectation readings available, and it needs no model to interpret.
This is why the 2-year often moves first and moves hardest around Fed communication. A shift in tone at a press conference, or an inflation print that changes the expected number of cuts, shows up here before it shows up at the long end, where growth and inflation expectations over a full decade dilute any single policy signal.
Subtract the 2-year from the 10-year and you get the 2s10s spread, the most cited yield-curve measure in financial media. Normally it is positive, because investors want extra compensation for lending over ten years rather than two. When it turns negative the curve is inverted, and that has preceded every US recession of the past half century, though with long and variable lags.
The mechanism is worth understanding rather than treating as magic. An inversion means the market expects short rates to be lower in the future than they are now, which usually means it expects the Fed to be cutting, which usually means it expects the economy to weaken. Note also that the curve typically re-steepens before the recession actually arrives, so the un-inversion is not the all-clear it looks like.
Inflation data and labour-market data dominate, because both feed directly into the expected policy path. A hot payrolls report that pushes back the expected timing of cuts lifts the 2-year immediately. Fed speeches and the quarterly dot plot matter for the same reason.
Longer-run forces that matter enormously at the 10- and 30-year, such as the term premium, government borrowing needs and foreign official demand, barely register here. Two years is simply not long enough for them to accumulate into a meaningful share of the yield. That narrower set of drivers is what makes the 2-year a cleaner policy signal than anything further out on the curve.
When the 2-year rises faster than the 10-year, the curve is flattening from the front, usually because the market is pricing tighter policy. When the 2-year falls faster, the curve is steepening from the front, usually because the market is pricing cuts. Traders call these bear-flattening and bull-steepening, and the labels describe who is winning rather than any judgment about the economy.
A useful discipline is to look at the 2-year and 10-year together rather than either alone. The same 10-year level means something very different depending on whether the 2-year sits well below it or well above.
| Maturity | Yield | 1-Day Change | vs 2Y |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 3.81% | +0 bp | -62 bp |
| 2M | 3.93% | +2 bp | -50 bp |
| 3M | 3.95% | +1 bp | -48 bp |
| 6M | 4.01% | +1 bp | -42 bp |
| 1Y | 4.17% | +2 bp | -26 bp |
| 2Y | 4.43% | +4 bp | — |
| 3Y | 4.49% | +5 bp | +6 bp |
| 5Y | 4.61% | +4 bp | +18 bp |
| 7Y | 4.71% | +3 bp | +28 bp |
| 10Y | 4.83% | +3 bp | +40 bp |
| 20Y | 5.28% | +2 bp | +85 bp |
| 30Y | 5.28% | +3 bp | +85 bp |
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury daily par yield curve — official public-domain U.S. government data, published once per business day. This page is information, not investment advice; see our disclaimer.