Par yield as of September 29, 2026 · official U.S. Treasury data
| Date | Yield | Change |
|---|---|---|
| September 29, 2026 | 4.25% | -3 bp |
| September 28, 2026 | 4.28% | +4 bp |
| September 25, 2026 | 4.24% | +0 bp |
| September 24, 2026 | 4.24% | +5 bp |
| September 23, 2026 | 4.19% | +3 bp |
| September 22, 2026 | 4.16% | -1 bp |
| September 21, 2026 | 4.17% | +3 bp |
| September 18, 2026 | 4.14% | +2 bp |
| September 17, 2026 | 4.12% | -2 bp |
| September 16, 2026 | 4.14% | — |
The 3-month Treasury yield, from the 13-week bill, is the closest thing finance has to a genuine risk-free rate. It is the benchmark against which cash returns are measured, the short leg of the recession signal the Federal Reserve’s own researchers favour, and the anchor for a large share of academic and practical valuation work.
When a valuation model calls for a risk-free rate, the 3-month bill is usually what is meant. The maturity is short enough that interest-rate risk is negligible and the issuer is the dollar’s own government, so in dollar terms the return is as close to certain as a financial asset gets.
That role gives the 3-month an outsized presence in finance far beyond the bond market. It appears in cost-of-capital calculations, in the Sharpe ratios used to judge fund performance, and in option pricing, where it stands in for the return on cash.
The 2s10s spread gets the headlines, but Federal Reserve research has generally found the spread between the 3-month bill and the 10-year note to be the better recession predictor. The reasoning is that the 3-month tracks actual current policy rather than expectations about it, so the spread measures how restrictive policy is right now against what the market expects over the long run.
An inverted 3m10y therefore carries a slightly different message from an inverted 2s10s. It says policy is tight today relative to long-run expectations, whereas the 2s10s can invert on expectations alone. The two do not always invert at the same time, and the sequence between them is itself informative.
The 13-week bill is the workhorse of institutional cash management. Money-market funds, corporate treasuries and foreign central banks hold enormous quantities, rolling them continuously. That demand is largely insensitive to the yield on offer, because these holders need short government paper regardless of price.
For individual savers the same instrument is available through TreasuryDirect or a brokerage, and it functions as a three-month deposit with no bank credit risk and no state or local income tax on the interest.
Very little other than the Federal Reserve. Over a thirteen-week horizon there is almost no room for inflation expectations or term premium to matter, so the 3-month yield tracks the fed funds target closely, drifting slightly above or below it as the market prices the next meeting.
The exceptions are worth knowing. Heavy bill issuance when the Treasury rebuilds its cash balance can push yields up, and episodes around the debt ceiling have occasionally distorted bills maturing near a projected default date, causing yields to spike on securities the market fears could be paid late.
| Maturity | Yield | 1-Day Change | vs 3M |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 4.04% | +0 bp | -21 bp |
| 2M | 4.18% | -2 bp | -7 bp |
| 3M | 4.25% | -3 bp | — |
| 6M | 4.36% | -5 bp | +11 bp |
| 1Y | 4.58% | -1 bp | +33 bp |
| 2Y | 4.89% | -3 bp | +64 bp |
| 3Y | 4.98% | -3 bp | +73 bp |
| 5Y | 5.06% | +0 bp | +81 bp |
| 7Y | 5.16% | +1 bp | +91 bp |
| 10Y | 5.26% | +2 bp | +101 bp |
| 20Y | 5.64% | +4 bp | +139 bp |
| 30Y | 5.59% | +3 bp | +134 bp |
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury daily par yield curve — official public-domain U.S. government data, published once per business day. This page is information, not investment advice; see our disclaimer.