
Dedicated to explaining why gold is money and the rest is credit. Dedicated to explaining economics relevant to the preservation of wealth. And dedicated to explaining geopolitical developments relevant to investors.
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Writing on gold, credit and monetary theory from a hard-money perspective. Recurring subjects include central bank gold holdings and repatriation, the yen carry trade and its effect on bond yields, Treasury funding, stablecoins and how they are accounted for, and the dollar's international position. Also publishes interviews.
Recent examples: Interview with Pinacle Digest · Talk is cheap — Buying bonds is not
Written from MacleodFinance Substack’s own published post titles and openings in Sep 11, 2026. It describes the subjects the newsletter covers, not its views, and is not investment advice.
24K on Sep 10, 2026 → 24K on Oct 20, 2026
Rank in Substack’s finance leaderboard: #86 today · #86 a week ago · #85 a month ago
Tracked since Sep 10, 2026 — 41 daily snapshots so far. The card below is built from what we track and refreshes nightly.
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Most-reacted post we have seen: Global debt crisis starts with France — 131 reactions on Oct 4, 2026.
“The next financial crisis has already started, according to Alasdair Macleod. His warning is extraordinary: stocks will crash, the Federal Reserve will unleash limitless money printing, and gold will rise while most investors watch their wealth disappear. ”But if the crisis is already underway, why is gold struggling? ”Gold remains far below its January peak, even as inflation heats up, borrowing costs remain elevated, and America's $40 trillion debt burden places mounting pressure on the financial system. ”In our latest pod, veteran financial analyst Alasdair Macleod revisits his prediction…
The chart of the 10-year Treasury note yield plainly indicates that having broken above resistance at 5% which has held for three years, it is perfectly natural for it to tick back to find support at or close to that level. But the larger context should be kept in mind:
Everyone looks at charts for clues of timing. But they are more helpful in identifying price trends after they have started than telling us when they are about to start. For that, we need to delve deeper into market actions. The level of investor interest in precious metals has retreated to the point where it has almost ceased to exist. It has been like this for months, indicated by the level of open interest in silver on Comex, which is the black line illustrated below: And no wonder: last May, open interest fell into deeply oversold territory, breaching levels last seen in September 2013…
“Is the global financial system approaching its breaking point? In this episode of Macroscopic, Alasdair Macleod warns of an unprecedented sovereign debt crisis that could threaten the very foundations of fiat currencies. ”We discuss France’s escalating debt crisis, Japan’s capital repatriation, rising bond yields, and the possibility of a major stock market crash. Macleod also explains how the unfolding energy shock could accelerate inflation, why governments may have no choice but to print more money, and what this could mean for gold and silver. Could the recent gold correction be setting…
In its current World Economic Outlook, the IMF forecasts US growth to be 2.3% in 2027 and the UK’s growth to dip slightly to 1.2%. There are two things fundamentally wrong with these estimates. The first is that they are recorded after inflation estimates, to give so-called real growth. But government estimates of price inflation severely understate the reality of prices on the ground. And the second is that GDP is a measure of credit deployed in the economy, not whether it is deployed productively or not. Furthermore, the government gooses the numbers by running deficits resulting in excess…
“The decline of American power is taking its currency down with it.” The cat’s out of the bag On Friday, President Trump revealed that Russia has agreed to supply 300,000 tonnes of diesel to America and international markets immediately, with more to follow in the coming months. In return, the US has agreed to suspend energy sanctions against Russia. At the time of writing, Russian confirmation is from senior officials rather than a formal Kremlin announcement. Zelensky’s response has been to double down on attacks against Russian refineries, reportedly striking two such facilities — moves…
“This is little doubt that the dollar’s purchasing power and credibility will be severely undermined, and that gold will therefore run higher with a significantly higher oil price. This change in sentiment could be sudden and dramatic.” Paper bulls of gold and silver may be down in the dumps, but there’s a quiet evolution in progress. And this is now evident in the relationship between gold and oil over the last three months: After oil’s peak last April, the price started a bottoming process in July, as did gold. Both then rose, not entirely synchronised, but roughly together with gold…
We demonstrate that the difference between the official annual rate of inflation and changes in the sterling/gold exchange rate over time is less than 2%, easily explained by government statisticians routinely underestimating it. Therefore, long-run changes in the gold price are a better measure of currency debasement, fully confirming its role as a safe haven. And what is true for sterling is also true for other currencies. Gold has always been money In 1750, you could order a cup of coffee in Jonathan’s coffee house, which was the forerunner of the London Stock Exchange. Jobbers and sundry…
My topic will be “Fiat Currency, Infinite Credit, Finite Trust”. I’ll also take part in the Precious Metals Panel, taking place Saturday October 31 from 11:50am. Meet me at VON GREYERZ’s Booth #432, or arrange a one-on-one meeting in advance with Jan Baltensweiler at [email protected] . MacleodFinance Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
We can be sure that the euro debasement trade versus the US dollar is not over. France’s situation is suddenly critical, particularly when its experience of the 1973—1974 OPEC crisis is considered. Introduction Regular readers of MacleodFinance will be aware of a looming debt crisis affecting all G7 member nations and beyond. This crisis is unique for modern times, being a widespread government financial crisis and not a private sector one in its origin. The outstanding question has been which of the G7 dominoes will topple first, and will it knock all the others down? We appear to have the…
“Who is right: the big money from central banks downwards, or the little people who have a record of buying at the top and selling at the bottom?” In recent weeks, open interest on Comex gold and silver contracts has struggled higher but is still close to deeply oversold territory. This reflects speculators putting just a toe in the water. Using their language, they are yet to be fully convinced that the debasement trade is on, so they believe gold and silver are vulnerable to rising bond yields. Hence, the opportunity for market makers and bullion bank trading desks to cover shorts and…
“In this exclusive interview, I sit down with Alasdair Macleod to discuss rising interest rates, bond yields, U.S. Treasuries, the stock market, gold, silver, the U.S. dollar, mining stocks, commodities, and the risk of a major financial crisis. ”Alasdair explains why he believes interest rates and bond yields could move much higher, why 5% yields may already create serious problems for the financial system, and what that could mean for U.S. equities, the dollar, and precious metals. We also discuss whether the stock market could face a major decline, whether the Fed will be able to intervene…
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