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What they write about
US real estate data and analysis, published around the housing release calendar. Recurring subjects include existing-home sales and inventory, mortgage purchase applications, delinquencies and foreclosures, asking rents, house price indices, and the government-sponsored mortgage enterprises.
- housing
- real estate data
- home sales
- mortgages
- rents
- house prices
Recent examples: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.221 million Annual Rate in September · House Prices to Income
Written from CalculatedRisk Newsletter’s own published post titles and openings in Sep 11, 2026. It describes the subjects the newsletter covers, not its views, and is not investment advice.
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Symbols named in the headline of a post from the last 30 days, most-covered first. The number is how many of those posts mentioned it.
Read from 1 post headline in the last 30 days. A newsletter that names a company only in the body of a post will not appear here, and a mention is not a recommendation — it only means the symbol came up.
Growth history
Subscribers (thousands, nightly)
40K on Sep 10, 2026 → 40K on Oct 21, 2026
Followers (thousands, nightly)
Rank in Substack’s finance leaderboard: #68 today · #67 a week ago · #63 a month ago
Stats worth sharing
Tracked since Sep 10, 2026 — 42 daily snapshots so far. The card below is built from what we track and refreshes nightly.
- Percentile
- Top 13%
- Best rank seen
- #59
- Rank, 7 days
- −1 place
- Rank, 30 days
- −5 places
- Followers added
- +1.3K
- Posts
- 23
- Reactions per post
- 25
- Reactions tracked
- 1.0K
- Tickers covered
- 1
of 525 ranked finance newsletters
on Sep 25, 2026
since tracking began
last 30 days
average, recent posts
across 41 posts
in tracked posts
Most-reacted post we have seen: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.98 million SAAR in August — 51 reactions on Sep 10, 2026.
Recent posts
- Housing Starts Decreased to 1.221 million Annual Rate in September
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,221,000. This is 5.2 percent below the revised August estimate of 1,288,000 and is 7.4 percent below the September 2025 rate of 1,319,000. Single-family housing starts in September were at a rate of 859,000; this is 4.6 percent below the revised August figure of 900,000. The September rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 349,000. Building Permits: Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in…
- House Prices to Income
One of the metrics we'd like to follow is a ratio of house prices to incomes. Unfortunately, most income data is released with a significantly lag, and there are always questions about which income data to use (the average total income is skewed by the income of a few people). And for key measures of house prices - like Case-Shiller - we have indexes, not actually prices. But we can construct a ratio of the house price indexes to some measures of income. House Price to National Average Wage Index For the following graph I decided to look at house prices and the National Average Wage Index…
- Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October 2026
Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October 2026 I reviewed home inventory and sales. In Part 2, I will look at house prices, mortgage rates, rents and more. House Prices Here is an interesting graph from Realtor.com on median list house prices. According to Realtor.com, list prices peaked in 2022 (when interest rates moved sharply higher) and have moved mostly sideways for four years. These are median prices and can be distorted by the mix, but median list prices have been down year-over-year for eleven consecutive months and are the lowest for…
- Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October 2026
This 2-part overview for mid-October provides a snapshot of the current housing market. Part 1 will review inventory and sales, and Part 2 will review house prices, rents, mortgage rates, and more. The key story for existing homes are: Sales in September were down 2.2% YoY and historically low. Sales SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) have been very low for 4 years. Months-of-supply is at the highest level in over a decade. Inventory growth might have picked up again year-over-year. The median price is up 1.3% YoY, but has peaked for the year. There are also significant regional…
- High Frequency Data: Recent Increase in Mortgage Rates Impacting Existing Home Supply and Demand
Here are two pieces of weekly data that show the impact of the recent increase in mortgage rates. MBA: Mortgage Applications Remain Weak From the Mortgage Bankers Association: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 2.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 9, 2026. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an…
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 3.99 million SAAR in September
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased 1.5% in September, According to NAR Report Month-Over-Month 1.5% increase in existing-home sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million in September 1.9% increase in unsold inventory to 1.60 million units, equal to 4.8 months’ supply Year-Over-Year 2.2% decrease in existing-home sales 1.3% increase in median existing-home sales price to $417,500 emphasis added This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994. Sales in September (3.99 million SAAR) were up 1.5% from the previous month…
- Lawler: Update on MBS Yields and Spreads
From housing economist Tom Lawler: The current-coupon MBS (CCMBS) yield ended last week a little below the end of September’s closing level but still close to the highest level since early November 2023. CCMBS/Treasury spreads so far in October have been relatively stable at the wider levels seen since the jump up in actual and implied interest-rate volatility that started in the latter part of September. For fun, here is a table showing a few dates where the CCMBS yield was 6.36%, along with various Treasury yields and the MOVE index on those days. Note that on 11/13/23 the 10-year Treasury…
- Early Look at Local Housing Markets in September
Note: The recent surge in mortgage rates will likely impact signed sales in September and October, however, since sales are reported at closing, the negative impact will not show up in this report . The NAR is now reporting earlier in the month than in previous years. Existing home sales for September are scheduled to be released Tuesday, October 13th. The consensus is for 3.96 million SAAR, down from 3.98 million in August. September sales were mostly for contracts signed in July and August, and mortgage rates averaged 6.54% in July and 6.67% in August (Higher than for closed sales in…
- Emerging Signs that Asking Rents are Near a Bottom
Every month I review rents and vacancy rates. First, a survey of data … Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.4% Year-over-year From ApartmentList.com: Apartment List National Rent Report September 2026 Rent Growth: Down 0.1% month-over-month, down 0.4% year-over-year The national median rent ticked down by 0.1 percent in September, marking the first monthly decline since January. The transition from increasing to decreasing rent prices is expected at this time of year. This is consistent with the market’s usual seasonality; fewer renters tend to move in the fall in winter months, and so…
- High Frequency Data: Recent Surge in Mortgage Rates Impacting Existing Home Supply and Demand
Here are two pieces of weekly data that I follow. MBA: Mortgage Applications Remain Weak From the Mortgage Bankers Association: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 4.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 2, 2026. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent…
- October ICE Mortgage Monitor: Annual home price growth was 1.4% in September
Here is the ICE October Mortgage Monitor report (pdf). Press Release: ARM Demand Hits Nearly Four-Year High on Rising Mortgage Rates Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. … today released the October 2026 ICE Mortgage Monitor Report. The analysis finds that adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) are drawing renewed borrower interest as mortgage rates climb. ARMs accounted for more than 11% of rate locks, their largest share in nearly four years, as ICE’s Conforming 30-year Fixed Rate Index reached 7.2% on Sept. 24. “ARMs are becoming more attractive to borrowers looking for relief from today’s higher…
- Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.8% Below 2022 Peak
It has been over 20+ years since the housing bubble peak . Ancient history! More timely, it has been 4 years and 2 months since the peak in real house prices . In the July Case-Shiller house price index released on last week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA) was reported as being 80.5% above the bubble peak. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 8.5% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The composite 20, in real terms, is 0.6% above the bubble peak. People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also…
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