Capital Flows
A daily livestream and proprietary report mapping the macro regime across rates, FX, and equities, built for active risk takers hunting asymmetric trades.
- Top in Finance
- #48
- Paid leaderboard
- #15
- Subscribers
- 61K
- Paid subscribers
- 1,000+ paid
- Badge
- Bestseller 1k
- Followers
- 88K
- Paid plan
- $99/mo
- Recommends
- 57
rounded by Substack
other newsletters
What they write about
A daily livestream and accompanying report mapping the macro regime across rates, foreign exchange and equities. Recurring subjects include liquidity conditions, bond volatility regimes, dollar policy, market positioning and Federal Reserve leadership, often presented alongside coded models.
- global macro
- rates
- foreign exchange
- liquidity
- positioning
- equities
Recent examples: What No One Sees Right Now · Interest Rate Strategy: How High Can They Really Go?
Written from Capital Flows’s own published post titles and openings in Sep 11, 2026. It describes the subjects the newsletter covers, not its views, and is not investment advice.
Growth history
Subscribers (thousands, nightly)
60K on Sep 10, 2026 → 61K on Sep 30, 2026
Followers (thousands, nightly)
Rank in Substack’s finance leaderboard: #48 today · #50 a week ago
Stats worth sharing
Tracked since Sep 10, 2026 — 21 daily snapshots so far. The card below is built from what we track and refreshes nightly.
- Percentile
- Top 10%
- Best rank seen
- #44
- Rank, 7 days
- +2 places
- Subscribers added
- +1.0K
- Followers added
- +1.3K
- Posts
- 9
- Reactions per post
- 57
- Reactions tracked
- 1.0K
of 525 ranked finance newsletters
on Sep 13, 2026
since tracking began
since tracking began
last 30 days
average, recent posts
across 18 posts
Most-reacted post we have seen: How Bessent Is Establishing A New Monetary Order — 140 reactions on Aug 20, 2026.
Recent posts
- What No One Sees Right Now
“A lot of people in our industry talk about pattern recognition as a positive attribute. We actually talk about pattern recognition as a negative attribute. It actually prevents you from seeing the world differently. It prevents you from seeing what the world can be.” “Rules are things that we learn as adults. And in reality, when you’re younger, you’re completely unconstrained with regards to the ways in which you see the world. And I actually think naivety is such a powerful thing.” “Rick Rubin has this incredible line in his book, which is pay attention to what you notice that no one else…
- Interest Rate Strategy: How High Can They Really Go?
The rally in interest rates over the last 3 months has had multiple drivers that are fundamentally misunderstood by market participants. WHEN we do have a drawdown in global equity markets, it will be signaled and confirmed by the underlying drivers in interest rates. I am going to break down these drivers and explain HOW they connect to flows in the market and WHY they frame macro liquidity right now.
- The KOSPI Is Where Policy Meets The AI Trade
Global power forces have always had a dominant role in financial markets since the beginning of time. These create significant macro dislocations that global macro traders take advantage of, since they are directly linked to rates, FX, and global trade expressed in the balance of payments. While most investors are focused on buying the next Mag7 that will provide generational returns, global macro investors are focused on identifying extreme events where credit cycle melt-ups or melt-downs occur because policy-driven manipulation is occurring in rates or FX. The primary reason I have focused…
- Credit-Fueled Growth Is Moving the Cycle Forward
The recent pullback in the S&P 500 has primarily been driven by the yield curve bear flattening, which means the short end has repriced significantly more than the long end has priced in additional nominal GDP. In simple terms, this is the Fed playing catch-up after its previous inaction during the inflationary shock and the rise in growth expectations. If you have been following the research pieces I have been putting out, then you know that over the last month I have been bearish bonds and neutral equities ( link ). This has proved to be very beneficial because we hit 7600 in a capitulatory…
- From One Policy Error To The Next
Macro Risk and Policy Error Risk can never be destroyed, only transferred. This is a fundamental presupposition for HOW capital flows through the system and WHY it moves. The challenge begins once you realize that risk is expressed in both nominal and real purchasing power terms across global markets, not in siloed systems. What is the tangible implication of this? The system is ALWAYS operating under both nominal and real constraints. These underlying constraints are the mechanical drivers of capital flows. As these constraints channel how capital moves under the surface, market incumbents…
- The Price Of Surviving Monetary Regime Change
The macro regime we have entered is creating a fundamental shift in WHERE capital is coming from. This falls directly in line with the sovereign debt risk that exists in the system right now. Contrary to popular opinion, sovereign debt crises do NOT mean risk assets can go up forever. When assets are denominated in a currency that is being devalued, traders will exit assets denominated in that currency entirely, because the total return is based on the asset's price appreciation AFTER it is adjusted for either domestic inflation or cross-border hedging costs. What we will cover today gets to…
- The Great Monetary Escalation
In an open system with global trade, imbalances and financial crises in one country spill over into others with incredible speed. The Great Financial Crisis in 2008 was centered on mortgage-backed securities in the private sector, which pushed banks into a corner where they needed to make some very grim decisions. No one wants to make the hard decisions until they are forced into a corner where they need to choose between selling and survival. The crisis that the global monetary system faces today is not one in the private sector but in the public sector, in real purchasing power terms as…
- Complacency Before The Cliff (Bonds)
Bonds remain in a low volatility regime on both an implied and realized basis. Realized volatility (yellow) has ticked up marginally as Warsh and Bessent take an overly accommodative stance into heightened nominal GDP, but the dominant regime remains low volatility, as the MOVE index remains low as well. This low volatility regime is setting the stage for significant complacency in markets. As I have consistently laid out, the greatest risk to financial markets continues to be the carry trade and interest rate risk. Both of these are sources of liquidity that are now being actively…
- “Dollar Devaluation” Is Bearish Equities
I have been very explicit about my views on equities over the last month. One month ago, I turned significantly less aggressive in my bullish stance and raised cash. Why? Because the positioning and macro backdrop had changed. The macro flows no longer justified an aggressively bullish view on equities for a credit cycle melt-up. Over the last month, I have transitioned into laying out the tensions for the risk-reward in equities and batting singles instead of trying to aggressively swing for the fences in my trading. Last week, I published my report explaining the entire macro picture and…
- Positioning Into Jackson Hole
Jackson Hole is always a pivotal moment for the structural elements of monetary policy. None of us who are actively trading rates or global macro are making coinflip trades on tomorrow as if we know exactly what Warsh will say, or as if he will provide secret insight into the next FOMC meeting. We are always in the process of updating how the range of probabilities is changing across multiple time horizons and how the constraints on each player act as anchors for those probabilities. These macro events function as clearing events where large players adjust hedges based on how their strategies…
- Melt Up or Melt Down Into End Of 2026?
The Starting Point Determines Clarity: Saying we are in a bubble grossly underestimates the power of the underlying forces driving capital across global markets. False narratives diagnosing price action always set the stage for epic melt-ups and catastrophic melt-downs because uninformed market participants are forced to buy and sell at inopportune times. Professional risk takers approach the future with humility by starting from first principles and ascertaining how they can add value to the liquidity process that dynamically unfolds. Starting from first principles instead of starting with…
- How Bessent Is Establishing A New Monetary Order
Before we dig into how regulation is shifting the flows of capital and macro liquidity, I want to share a few personal thoughts that will function as guiding principles for our future work. First, I feel incredibly grateful and privileged to be able to have a seat at the table in markets. I have had some amazing people in my life who have helped me grow and bet on me. If you are reading this, then you are also part of those people who are deciding to actively bet on who I will be in the future. Second, I want to curate the highest-quality macro research product that empowers you to make the…
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Data: Substack public leaderboards and publication archives, refreshed nightly, plus public beehiiv sitemaps and recommendation pages, refreshed weekly. Source for this page: Capital Flows. Subscriber counts are Substack’s own rounded public figures, so week-on-week changes move in steps. beehiiv audience sizes are self-reported by the publisher and are not verified. Last snapshot: Sep 30, 2026.