Capital Flows
A daily livestream and proprietary report mapping the macro regime across rates, FX, and equities, built for active risk takers hunting asymmetric trades.
- Top in Finance
- #59
- Paid leaderboard
- #16
- Subscribers
- 62K
- Paid subscribers
- 1,000+ paid
- Badge
- Bestseller 1k
- Followers
- 89K
- Paid plan
- $99/mo
- Recommends
- 57
rounded by Substack
other newsletters
What they write about
A daily livestream and accompanying report mapping the macro regime across rates, foreign exchange and equities. Recurring subjects include liquidity conditions, bond volatility regimes, dollar policy, market positioning and Federal Reserve leadership, often presented alongside coded models.
- global macro
- rates
- foreign exchange
- liquidity
- positioning
- equities
Recent examples: The Volatility No One Escapes - Sovereign Debt Crisis · Macro Trades: Rates, Energy, and AI Capex Rotations
Written from Capital Flows’s own published post titles and openings in Sep 11, 2026. It describes the subjects the newsletter covers, not its views, and is not investment advice.
Growth history
Subscribers (thousands, nightly)
60K on Sep 10, 2026 → 62K on Oct 21, 2026
Followers (thousands, nightly)
Rank in Substack’s finance leaderboard: #59 today · #54 a week ago · #52 a month ago
Stats worth sharing
Tracked since Sep 10, 2026 — 42 daily snapshots so far. The card below is built from what we track and refreshes nightly.
- Percentile
- Top 12%
- Best rank seen
- #44
- Rank, 7 days
- −5 places
- Rank, 30 days
- −7 places
- Subscribers added
- +2.0K
- Followers added
- +2.9K
- Posts
- 5
- Reactions per post
- 59
- Reactions tracked
- 1.2K
of 525 ranked finance newsletters
on Sep 13, 2026
since tracking began
since tracking began
last 30 days
average, recent posts
across 20 posts
Most-reacted post we have seen: How Bessent Is Establishing A New Monetary Order — 140 reactions on Aug 20, 2026.
Recent posts
- The Volatility No One Escapes - Sovereign Debt Crisis
After the US took the dollar off the gold standard, we entered a regime where free-floating currencies were the release valve for economic warfare and financial imbalances. A free-floating currency regime means that the market decides the price of a currency instead of a government unilaterally controlling it, as the US did under the gold standard. A currency is the gateway for accessing a country's goods, services, and assets, which means that the market determines HOW MUCH of a premium you should pay for access. This change in rules for free-floating currencies has been one of THE major…
- Macro Trades: Rates, Energy, and AI Capex Rotations
You need to get the big things right Most people are focused on being right in all of the ways that don’t matter Growth, Inflation, Liquidity: MAIN IDEA: We are in a period where growth is running significantly above trend at the same time as an energy shock. The growth that is taking place is due to 1) AI capex increasing the amount of investment in the economy, and 2) New AI models disrupting and benefiting companies across the economy. If you understand these big ideas, they will frame HOW the short-end interest rates are mispriced as well as the directional skew in equities. Paid members…
- What No One Sees Right Now
“A lot of people in our industry talk about pattern recognition as a positive attribute. We actually talk about pattern recognition as a negative attribute. It actually prevents you from seeing the world differently. It prevents you from seeing what the world can be.” “Rules are things that we learn as adults. And in reality, when you’re younger, you’re completely unconstrained with regards to the ways in which you see the world. And I actually think naivety is such a powerful thing.” “Rick Rubin has this incredible line in his book, which is pay attention to what you notice that no one else…
- Interest Rate Strategy: How High Can They Really Go?
The rally in interest rates over the last 3 months has had multiple drivers that are fundamentally misunderstood by market participants. WHEN we do have a drawdown in global equity markets, it will be signaled and confirmed by the underlying drivers in interest rates. I am going to break down these drivers and explain HOW they connect to flows in the market and WHY they frame macro liquidity right now.
- The KOSPI Is Where Policy Meets The AI Trade
Global power forces have always had a dominant role in financial markets since the beginning of time. These create significant macro dislocations that global macro traders take advantage of, since they are directly linked to rates, FX, and global trade expressed in the balance of payments. While most investors are focused on buying the next Mag7 that will provide generational returns, global macro investors are focused on identifying extreme events where credit cycle melt-ups or melt-downs occur because policy-driven manipulation is occurring in rates or FX. The primary reason I have focused…
- Credit-Fueled Growth Is Moving the Cycle Forward
The recent pullback in the S&P 500 has primarily been driven by the yield curve bear flattening, which means the short end has repriced significantly more than the long end has priced in additional nominal GDP. In simple terms, this is the Fed playing catch-up after its previous inaction during the inflationary shock and the rise in growth expectations. If you have been following the research pieces I have been putting out, then you know that over the last month I have been bearish bonds and neutral equities ( link ). This has proved to be very beneficial because we hit 7600 in a capitulatory…
- From One Policy Error To The Next
Macro Risk and Policy Error Risk can never be destroyed, only transferred. This is a fundamental presupposition for HOW capital flows through the system and WHY it moves. The challenge begins once you realize that risk is expressed in both nominal and real purchasing power terms across global markets, not in siloed systems. What is the tangible implication of this? The system is ALWAYS operating under both nominal and real constraints. These underlying constraints are the mechanical drivers of capital flows. As these constraints channel how capital moves under the surface, market incumbents…
- The Price Of Surviving Monetary Regime Change
The macro regime we have entered is creating a fundamental shift in WHERE capital is coming from. This falls directly in line with the sovereign debt risk that exists in the system right now. Contrary to popular opinion, sovereign debt crises do NOT mean risk assets can go up forever. When assets are denominated in a currency that is being devalued, traders will exit assets denominated in that currency entirely, because the total return is based on the asset's price appreciation AFTER it is adjusted for either domestic inflation or cross-border hedging costs. What we will cover today gets to…
- The Great Monetary Escalation
In an open system with global trade, imbalances and financial crises in one country spill over into others with incredible speed. The Great Financial Crisis in 2008 was centered on mortgage-backed securities in the private sector, which pushed banks into a corner where they needed to make some very grim decisions. No one wants to make the hard decisions until they are forced into a corner where they need to choose between selling and survival. The crisis that the global monetary system faces today is not one in the private sector but in the public sector, in real purchasing power terms as…
- Complacency Before The Cliff (Bonds)
Bonds remain in a low volatility regime on both an implied and realized basis. Realized volatility (yellow) has ticked up marginally as Warsh and Bessent take an overly accommodative stance into heightened nominal GDP, but the dominant regime remains low volatility, as the MOVE index remains low as well. This low volatility regime is setting the stage for significant complacency in markets. As I have consistently laid out, the greatest risk to financial markets continues to be the carry trade and interest rate risk. Both of these are sources of liquidity that are now being actively…
- “Dollar Devaluation” Is Bearish Equities
I have been very explicit about my views on equities over the last month. One month ago, I turned significantly less aggressive in my bullish stance and raised cash. Why? Because the positioning and macro backdrop had changed. The macro flows no longer justified an aggressively bullish view on equities for a credit cycle melt-up. Over the last month, I have transitioned into laying out the tensions for the risk-reward in equities and batting singles instead of trying to aggressively swing for the fences in my trading. Last week, I published my report explaining the entire macro picture and…
- Positioning Into Jackson Hole
Jackson Hole is always a pivotal moment for the structural elements of monetary policy. None of us who are actively trading rates or global macro are making coinflip trades on tomorrow as if we know exactly what Warsh will say, or as if he will provide secret insight into the next FOMC meeting. We are always in the process of updating how the range of probabilities is changing across multiple time horizons and how the constraints on each player act as anchors for those probabilities. These macro events function as clearing events where large players adjust hedges based on how their strategies…
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Data: Substack public leaderboards and publication archives, refreshed nightly, plus public beehiiv sitemaps and recommendation pages, refreshed weekly. Source for this page: Capital Flows. Subscriber counts are Substack’s own rounded public figures, so week-on-week changes move in steps. beehiiv audience sizes are self-reported by the publisher and are not verified. Last snapshot: Oct 21, 2026.