Capital Flows
A daily livestream and proprietary report mapping the macro regime across rates, FX, and equities, built for active risk takers hunting asymmetric trades.
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other newsletters
What they write about
A daily livestream and accompanying report mapping the macro regime across rates, foreign exchange and equities. Recurring subjects include liquidity conditions, bond volatility regimes, dollar policy, market positioning and Federal Reserve leadership, often presented alongside coded models.
- global macro
- rates
- foreign exchange
- liquidity
- positioning
- equities
Recent examples: Equity Selling Pressure · The Fed’s Looming Policy Error
Written from Capital Flows’s own published post titles and openings in Sep 11, 2026. It describes the subjects the newsletter covers, not its views, and is not investment advice.
Growth history
Subscribers (thousands, nightly)
60K on Sep 10, 2026 → 62K on Oct 21, 2026
Followers (thousands, nightly)
Rank in Substack’s finance leaderboard: #50 today · #49 a week ago · #52 a month ago
Stats worth sharing
Tracked since Sep 10, 2026 — 62 daily snapshots so far. The card below is built from what we track and refreshes nightly.
- Percentile
- Top 10%
- Best rank seen
- #44
- Rank, 7 days
- −1 place
- Rank, 30 days
- +2 places
- Followers added
- +4.1K
- Posts
- 9
- Reactions per post
- 57
- Reactions tracked
- 1.6K
of 525 ranked finance newsletters
on Sep 13, 2026
since tracking began
last 30 days
average, recent posts
across 28 posts
Most-reacted post we have seen: How Bessent Is Establishing A New Monetary Order — 140 reactions on Aug 20, 2026.
Recent posts
- Equity Selling Pressure
- The Fed’s Looming Policy Error
The Fed decided to hold rates in a passive stance during the FOMC meeting today, which marked the explicit confirmation that they are actively ignoring the inflation picture. This policy error is being underestimated by positioning and will continue to be downplayed by market participants. The financial industry is structured to keep you invested in a 60/40 stock-bond portfolio. Narratives are carefully crafted to downplay the upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to growth. Why? Because if you believed inflation would rise and growth would fall, you would immediately exit the…
- (Video Breakdown) Midterms and The Coming AI Regulatory Crisis
I just finished a video breakdown of the recent article I published: Midterms and The Coming AI Regulatory Crisis If you are trying to understand HOW flows are moving markets and WHY AI rotations are taking place, this video is an in-depth explanation of it. Transcript for video: 2026 10 27 07 50 27 Transcript 42.2KB ∙ PDF file Download Download YouTube link for video: LINK Macro Intelligence Pack:
- Midterms and The Coming AI Regulatory Crisis
The Liquidity and Credit Cycle: Deregulation has fueled the entire liquidity cycle and credit issuance since Trump took office at the beginning of 2025. Deregulation is a less explicit element in financial markets because it influences all of the headline numbers we see but never gets the credit for it. CEOs are going to attribute their stellar performance to their own execution, not the deregulation environment. When things get bad, it’s the environment; when things are going well, it’s because of leadership’s execution. Traders are paid a premium to see through the forward guidance of CEOs…
- Equity and Bond Market Risks (Video Breakdown)
Today I recorded a video explaining HOW to think about and analyze the flows in the equity and bond market. With equities closing down today and crude bidding again, the question facing investors is: how extensive are the risks in the liquidity cycle? I framed the initial points for these risks in the report linked here and expand on them in the video below.
- Credit Cycle Intelligence
Macro liquidity and credit injections are in a constant process of expanding or contracting in public markets and the underlying economy. Over the last 3 years, we have seen significant injections of macro liquidity into public markets and credit issuance into the underlying economy. The net result has been nominal GDP running significantly above trend and equity valuations sitting at elevated levels at the index level. This is true for the S&P 500: As well as the NASDAQ: If you read the report on how AI capex is linked to term premia, then you understand that the larger context is one where…
- New Interest Rate Regime Model - Volatility is building
I am sending out a short note building on yesterday’s report. It launches a new regime model that maps HOW MUCH interest rate risk exists in the system, which is critical for understanding WHERE the directional skew of interest rates sits. This model quantifies the interest rate regimes that matter for managing interest rate risk. The three panels represent the three angles from which to systematically analyze that risk: interest rate volatility, positioning, and directional skew. When all three align in the same direction, large moves in rates always occur. This model will be updated and…
- Global Interest Rate Intelligence: Macro Liquidity
Capital Flows’ primary focus is global interest rates, FX flows, and macro liquidity, the forces that cause the flows of capital in the system to change. The degree of uncertainty that exists in the system is only going to increase in the future. US interest rates are at decade highs, the war in the Middle East continues to push an inflationary shock through the system, and the Eurozone is experiencing a sovereign debt crisis on a scale not seen since the 2010s. These events are only the beginning of the volatility that is going to take place over the next 18 months. The problem that…
- The Volatility No One Escapes - Sovereign Debt Crisis
After the US took the dollar off the gold standard, we entered a regime where free-floating currencies were the release valve for economic warfare and financial imbalances. A free-floating currency regime means that the market decides the price of a currency instead of a government unilaterally controlling it, as the US did under the gold standard. A currency is the gateway for accessing a country's goods, services, and assets, which means that the market determines HOW MUCH of a premium you should pay for access. This change in rules for free-floating currencies has been one of THE major…
- Macro Trades: Rates, Energy, and AI Capex Rotations
You need to get the big things right Most people are focused on being right in all of the ways that don’t matter Growth, Inflation, Liquidity: MAIN IDEA: We are in a period where growth is running significantly above trend at the same time as an energy shock. The growth that is taking place is due to 1) AI capex increasing the amount of investment in the economy, and 2) New AI models disrupting and benefiting companies across the economy. If you understand these big ideas, they will frame HOW the short-end interest rates are mispriced as well as the directional skew in equities. Paid members…
- What No One Sees Right Now
“A lot of people in our industry talk about pattern recognition as a positive attribute. We actually talk about pattern recognition as a negative attribute. It actually prevents you from seeing the world differently. It prevents you from seeing what the world can be.” “Rules are things that we learn as adults. And in reality, when you’re younger, you’re completely unconstrained with regards to the ways in which you see the world. And I actually think naivety is such a powerful thing.” “Rick Rubin has this incredible line in his book, which is pay attention to what you notice that no one else…
- Interest Rate Strategy: How High Can They Really Go?
The rally in interest rates over the last 3 months has had multiple drivers that are fundamentally misunderstood by market participants. WHEN we do have a drawdown in global equity markets, it will be signaled and confirmed by the underlying drivers in interest rates. I am going to break down these drivers and explain HOW they connect to flows in the market and WHY they frame macro liquidity right now.
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Data: Substack public leaderboards and publication archives, refreshed nightly, plus public beehiiv sitemaps and recommendation pages, refreshed weekly. Source for this page: Capital Flows. Subscriber counts are Substack’s own rounded public figures, so week-on-week changes move in steps. beehiiv audience sizes are self-reported by the publisher and are not verified. Last snapshot: Nov 10, 2026.