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What they write about
Global liquidity analysis anchored by a weekly liquidity update. Recurring subjects include central bank and private-sector liquidity creation, Treasury debt management and refinancing, how liquidity transmits into bonds and Bitcoin, and the structure of the modern bond market.
- global liquidity
- central banks
- bonds
- treasury policy
- bitcoin
- macro
Recent examples: Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update · Trillions and Trillions
Written from Capital Wars’s own published post titles and openings in Sep 11, 2026. It describes the subjects the newsletter covers, not its views, and is not investment advice.
Growth history
Subscribers (thousands, nightly)
57K on Sep 10, 2026 → 58K on Oct 21, 2026
Followers (thousands, nightly)
Rank in Substack’s finance leaderboard: #45 today · #43 a week ago · #37 a month ago
Stats worth sharing
Tracked since Sep 10, 2026 — 62 daily snapshots so far. The card below is built from what we track and refreshes nightly.
- Percentile
- Top 9%
- Best rank seen
- #35
- Rank, 7 days
- −2 places
- Rank, 30 days
- −8 places
- Followers added
- +3.1K
- Posts
- 13
- Reactions per post
- 65
- Reactions tracked
- 2.5K
of 525 ranked finance newsletters
on Oct 4, 2026
since tracking began
last 30 days
average, recent posts
across 38 posts
Most-reacted post we have seen: The Ratio That Drives Everything: Debt, Liquidity and the Financial Cycle — 252 reactions on Sep 20, 2026.
Recent posts
- Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update
Headline liquidity slipped again last week despite a modest pick-up in the Shadow Monetary Base. Support from strong PBoC liquidity injections and a still-high collateral multiplier is being offset by a stronger US dollar, weaker Fed liquidity, and ongoing ECB and BoJ quantitative tightening. Investor risk appetite continues to soften, with a notable reduction in Emerging Market exposure, particularly Latin America
- Trillions and Trillions
The AI investment boom is reaching an unprecedented scale, yet history repeatedly shows that liquidity and financing, rather than technology, often become the ultimate constraints on investment cycles. This year alone US hyper-scaler capital expenditure is projected to approach US$1 trillion and may rise toward US$1.75 trillion by 2027. While the economic and technological implications are transformative, the investment implications look less rosy. History suggests that periods of extraordinary capital spending often culminate in overcapacity, margin compression and financial stress. Three…
- The Fed’s ‘Third Way’
The Global Liquidity cycle appears to be rolling over—but the latest Fed meeting suggests this is no conventional monetary squeeze. With debt burdens already high and little political appetite for austerity, policymakers worldwide have strong incentives to avoid indiscriminate tightening. Instead, liquidity is being absorbed by a strong real economy. Fiscal expansion, resilient nominal growth and the AI-driven capex boom are increasing the demand for funding, drawing liquidity away from financial markets and towards productive investment and working capital. At the same time, the US Fed’s…
- Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update
Global liquidity levels are slipping lower. Downward pressures—including the stronger US dollar and weakening collateral values—are intensifying. Reliance on a record-high collateral multiplier creates an increasingly fragile liquidity environment. As nominal liquidity declines, investors are actively rotating away from global risk assets, most noticeably in the US and emerging Asian markets
- Bitcoin, Gold and Capital Wars
In an earlier report [ ] we argued that investors need to own monetary inflation hedges of all stripes because of the continuing threat of persistent money printing. Here we drill deeper into what drives the relative performance of Bitcoin and gold . Our question is whether the Bitcoin/Gold ratio shown below is becoming something more important: a new geopolitical indicator and potential scoreboard for the Capital Wars. To cut to the chase, the following chart suggests that Bitcoin tends to outperform gold when Fed Liquidity grows faster than PBoC Liquidity. The subtlety is that the Fed need…
- Phase Shift
It increasingly looks as though the Turbulence investment regime is near. Trends are always important to understand, but cycles can often dominate. And, the Global Liquidity cycle continues to head lower. We focus here on tactical asset allocation . So far and in line with Global Liquidity movements, this has been a conventional bond-market cycle and, broadly speaking, a normal commodity cycle. Equities are the anomaly. While many equity subsectors have behaved much as the cycle would suggest, technology has been exceptional. Evidence the Russell 2000 ‘small cap’ index and the MSCI Emerging…
- David Lin Report
Here is a video from The David Lin Report
- Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update
Global liquidity levels declined for a second consecutive week. Collateral values remain under pressure and the US dollar remains strong. The collateral multiplier is helping to offset weakness elsewhere. Volatility has jumped in the last week or so but this has yet to feed through into collateral haircuts. Investors are adjusting to this less certain liquidity backdrop by reducing risk asset exposure
- Understanding The Bond Sell-Off
‘Normal’ Interest Rates Return Sidney Homer’s classic A History of Interest Rates (1963) examined interest rates across five thousand years. Its great lesson for modern investors is that the ultra-low and sometimes negative rates that followed the 2008/09 Global Financial Crisis were historically unique. Long-term UK and US interest-rate data tell much the same story. Over very long periods, government borrowing costs have tended to settle at levels considerably above those seen after 2008. Evidence data from US Treasury and Bank of England archives used to create a hybrid Anglo-American…
- What Is Bitcoin Telling Us?
We often describe Bitcoin as the most liquidity-sensitive major asset on the planet . If that proposition is even approximately right, its recent behaviour deserves attention. Bitcoin’s latest stabilization and rally may be telling us something important about the direction of Western monetary policy and, in particular, about what the Fed is doing with liquidity. To put this in context, consider two other observations. First, policymakers are constrained in how aggressively they can tighten financial conditions by the enormous debt burden hanging over World markets. Second, gold bullion…
- ATOMIQ LEVEL Live Feat. Michael Howell with Chris J Snook
Get more from Michael Howell in the Substack app Available for iOS and Android Get the app
- Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update
Global liquidity fell for the first time in almost three months as weaker collateral values and a stronger US dollar weighed on liquidity conditions. Still the collateral multiplier is at a record high indicating that collateral haircuts have yet to adjust to the recent jump in volatility. Investor risk appetite is easing, with flows shifting away from Asian EM toward commodity producers and the US
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Data: Substack public leaderboards and publication archives, refreshed nightly, plus public beehiiv sitemaps and recommendation pages, refreshed weekly. Source for this page: Capital Wars. Subscriber counts are Substack’s own rounded public figures, so week-on-week changes move in steps. beehiiv audience sizes are self-reported by the publisher and are not verified. Last snapshot: Nov 10, 2026.