- Top in Finance
- #37
- Paid leaderboard
- #6
- Subscribers
- 58K
- Paid subscribers
- 1,000+ paid
- Badge
- Bestseller 1k
- Followers
- 77K
- Paid plan
- $75/mo
- Recommends
- 40
- Podcast
- Yes
rounded by Substack
other newsletters
What they write about
Global liquidity analysis anchored by a weekly liquidity update. Recurring subjects include central bank and private-sector liquidity creation, Treasury debt management and refinancing, how liquidity transmits into bonds and Bitcoin, and the structure of the modern bond market.
- global liquidity
- central banks
- bonds
- treasury policy
- bitcoin
- macro
Recent examples: Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update · Phoney Press Panic
Written from Capital Wars’s own published post titles and openings in Sep 11, 2026. It describes the subjects the newsletter covers, not its views, and is not investment advice.
Growth history
Subscribers (thousands, nightly)
57K on Sep 10, 2026 → 58K on Sep 30, 2026
Followers (thousands, nightly)
Rank in Substack’s finance leaderboard: #37 today · #38 a week ago
Stats worth sharing
Tracked since Sep 10, 2026 — 21 daily snapshots so far. The card below is built from what we track and refreshes nightly.
- Percentile
- Top 8%
- Best rank seen
- #36
- Rank, 7 days
- +1 place
- Subscribers added
- +1.0K
- Followers added
- +1.2K
- Posts
- 15
- Reactions per post
- 76
- Reactions tracked
- 1.6K
of 525 ranked finance newsletters
on Sep 29, 2026
since tracking began
since tracking began
last 30 days
average, recent posts
across 21 posts
Most-reacted post we have seen: The Ratio That Drives Everything: Debt, Liquidity and the Financial Cycle — 241 reactions on Sep 20, 2026.
Recent posts
- Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update
Global liquidity has hit a record US$196.3tr, but underlying liquidity is at a 16-month low. A stronger US dollar, weaker collateral values, and slower Chinese liquidity growth are weighing on conditions. Risk appetite remains high, but rising bond volatility poses a risk
- Phoney Press Panic
With some private US nowcasts suggesting that Q3 growth may already be approaching an extraordinary 7%, buying long-dated bonds might appear premature. We have been bearish fixed income throughout this year for exactly this reason. In the near term, this stronger economic growth could still push yields higher. Over the longer run, yields are also likely to remain above the depressed levels of the past decade because nominal GDP (NGDP) growth is settling at a structurally faster pace. Yet investors should not confuse a long-term trend with a cyclical opportunity. While secular forces may keep…
- Understanding The Commodity Boom
Asset Allocation Background: Two Monies Guiding our investment views for 2026 was the simple observation that all money that is anywhere must be somewhere. Liquidity cannot simultaneously reside in both financial markets and the real economy. Capital is constantly being allocated between these competing destinations. Strong bond markets and expanding valuation multiples (P/Es) reflect the concentration of liquidity within financial assets. Conversely, accelerating economic activity, robust earnings growth (E) and rising commodity prices signal liquidity flowing into the real economy…
- Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update
Global liquidity rose above US$196tr last week, driven by favourable funding conditions. The collateral multiplier is at an all-time high according to our records. Investor risk appetite remains elevated, but capital is rotating from emerging markets toward developed markets and commodity-producing regions
- The Ratio That Drives Everything: Debt, Liquidity and the Financial Cycle
It is never different this time, until it is. In this report, we outline our framework for interpreting the financial cycle. It first explains the two-way dependence between debt and liquidity, then identifies the ratio’s proposed equilibrium range, and finally considers the implications for crises, asset bubbles, policy and markets. The global economy is burdened by an ever-growing stock of debt, much of which is increasingly unproductive. Because this debt does not generate sufficient future cash flows or economic returns, it compounds relentlessly. At the same time, politicians have proven…
- It's the Economy, Stupid
“It’s the economy, stupid.” James Carville’s famous observation remains as relevant to bond markets today as it was to presidential politics in 1992. Indeed, this is looking increasingly like a ‘normal’ bond market cycle. We are getting close to a major buying opportunity for fixed income. US Treasury yields have been rising and are now testing 5% at the 10-year maturity. Yet this move has little to do with fears of an imminent debt crisis, exploding government deficits, or a loss of confidence in US Treasuries. Instead, yields appear to be adjusting to a more fundamental reality: nominal GDP…
- Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update
The weak dollar and favourable funding conditions underpinned this week’s rise in Global Liquidity to US$195.8tr. But the Shadow Monetary Base continues to flat-line as Central Banks (PBoC apart) limit liquidity growth and collateral (bond) values falter. Investors are still very risk on but are adjusting exposure to fit this late-stage of the liquidity cycle
- China, Gold And Crypto
The overriding theme of our research is simple: money matters. More specifically, expanding liquidity drives asset prices higher, with monetary inflation hedges proving the greatest beneficiaries. We believe the global economy remains in the early stages of what we describe as “Capital Wars” : an environment in which nation states play an increasingly dominant role in economic activity and monetary policy becomes progressively subordinated to fiscal funding requirements. We refer to this regime as Keynesian dominance : a structurally larger state sector combined with permanently elevated…
- Bonds, Treasury QE and the ‘3-3-3-30’ Policy Framework
Bond markets are rarely the most exciting area of finance, yet they remain the most important for investors to understand. Government bonds are not simply another asset class. They underpin the global collateral system, determine funding conditions and establish the hurdle rate that all other investments must ultimately beat. For that reason, the widespread belief that rising bond yields signal investor concerns about runaway fiscal deficits or a loss of confidence in US Treasuries must be refuted. Bond yields are undoubtedly rising, but this is a global phenomenon, with China the notable…
- In Conversation With Michael Howell
Get more from Michael Howell in the Substack app Available for iOS and Android Get the app
- Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update
Global liquidity is being supported by benign funding conditions (low volatility), but underlying liquidity creation remains weak, with SMB growth still negative. Investor risk appetite remains strong, increasingly favouring select developed markets and commodity-related emerging markets
- Bitcoin’s Liquidity Paradoxes
We view liquidity as circulating through two distinct channels: the financial economy and the real economy. We often express this idea by saying that all money that is anywhere must be somewhere ; it cannot occupy two places simultaneously. In broad terms, liquidity in the financial sector supports bond prices and risk assets, while liquidity in the real economy fuels commodity markets, business activity and corporate profits. When liquidity shifts between these two circuits, equity P/Es may fall as bond yields rise, but stronger earnings can offset that pressure to a greater or lesser…
← All trending finance newsletters
Data: Substack public leaderboards and publication archives, refreshed nightly, plus public beehiiv sitemaps and recommendation pages, refreshed weekly. Source for this page: Capital Wars. Subscriber counts are Substack’s own rounded public figures, so week-on-week changes move in steps. beehiiv audience sizes are self-reported by the publisher and are not verified. Last snapshot: Sep 30, 2026.