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What they write about
Global liquidity analysis anchored by a weekly liquidity update. Recurring subjects include central bank and private-sector liquidity creation, Treasury debt management and refinancing, how liquidity transmits into bonds and Bitcoin, and the structure of the modern bond market.
- global liquidity
- central banks
- bonds
- treasury policy
- bitcoin
- macro
Recent examples: Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update · Understanding The Bond Sell-Off
Written from Capital Wars’s own published post titles and openings in Sep 11, 2026. It describes the subjects the newsletter covers, not its views, and is not investment advice.
Growth history
Subscribers (thousands, nightly)
57K on Sep 10, 2026 → 58K on Oct 21, 2026
Followers (thousands, nightly)
Rank in Substack’s finance leaderboard: #40 today · #39 a week ago · #39 a month ago
Stats worth sharing
Tracked since Sep 10, 2026 — 42 daily snapshots so far. The card below is built from what we track and refreshes nightly.
- Percentile
- Top 8%
- Best rank seen
- #35
- Rank, 7 days
- −1 place
- Rank, 30 days
- −1 place
- Subscribers added
- +1.0K
- Followers added
- +2.2K
- Posts
- 14
- Reactions per post
- 70
- Reactions tracked
- 2.2K
of 525 ranked finance newsletters
on Oct 4, 2026
since tracking began
since tracking began
last 30 days
average, recent posts
across 31 posts
Most-reacted post we have seen: The Ratio That Drives Everything: Debt, Liquidity and the Financial Cycle — 252 reactions on Sep 20, 2026.
Recent posts
- Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update
Global liquidity levels declined for a second consecutive week. Collateral values remain under pressure and the US dollar remains strong. The collateral multiplier is helping to offset weakness elsewhere. Volatility has jumped in the last week or so but this has yet to feed through into collateral haircuts. Investors are adjusting to this less certain liquidity backdrop by reducing risk asset exposure
- Understanding The Bond Sell-Off
‘Normal’ Interest Rates Return Sidney Homer’s classic A History of Interest Rates (1963) examined interest rates across five thousand years. Its great lesson for modern investors is that the ultra-low and sometimes negative rates that followed the 2008/09 Global Financial Crisis were historically unique. Long-term UK and US interest-rate data tell much the same story. Over very long periods, government borrowing costs have tended to settle at levels considerably above those seen after 2008. Evidence data from US Treasury and Bank of England archives used to create a hybrid Anglo-American…
- What Is Bitcoin Telling Us?
We often describe Bitcoin as the most liquidity-sensitive major asset on the planet . If that proposition is even approximately right, its recent behaviour deserves attention. Bitcoin’s latest stabilization and rally may be telling us something important about the direction of Western monetary policy and, in particular, about what the Fed is doing with liquidity. To put this in context, consider two other observations. First, policymakers are constrained in how aggressively they can tighten financial conditions by the enormous debt burden hanging over World markets. Second, gold bullion…
- ATOMIQ LEVEL Live Feat. Michael Howell with Chris J Snook
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- Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update
Global liquidity fell for the first time in almost three months as weaker collateral values and a stronger US dollar weighed on liquidity conditions. Still the collateral multiplier is at a record high indicating that collateral haircuts have yet to adjust to the recent jump in volatility. Investor risk appetite is easing, with flows shifting away from Asian EM toward commodity producers and the US
- Is the Fed Deliberately Behind the Curve?
Recent weekly moves in Federal Reserve liquidity raise a basic but important question: how much monetary tightening is actually reaching the financial system? Fed funds alone do not measure the pace of US monetary tightening. Rather collateral conditions, bond volatility, the dollar and yield-curve signals are better policy indicators. The investment twist is that this may not just be a bond story: if markets, not the Fed, are doing the tightening, Bitcoin may ultimately behave less like a speculative investment and more like an ultra-long-duration asset. Half Speed Ahead! Investors usually…
- Will 2027 Prove a Recession Year?
Markets move in cycles, but they are also forward discounting mechanisms. Investors typically look six to twelve months ahead. The crucial question therefore is not what the World economy looks like today, but what it is likely to look like in the second half of 2027. Viewed through the lens of the Investment Clock, we remain in a relatively standard fixed-income cycle. The early-cycle bull (yield curve) steepener that characterized the Rebound investment phase has given way to the bear flattener associated with the late-cycle Speculation regime. If the cycle continues to evolve sequentially…
- Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update
Headline global liquidity rose to US$196.6tr last week, supported by a record collateral multiplier despite the jump in bond volatility. Rising volatility typically forces higher haircuts and drains liquidity, but the data show this has not happened yet. Meanwhile, investor risk appetite continues to shift away from Emerging Asia towards commodity-producers and select Developed Markets
- Crypto, Gold and Bonds
Global Liquidity, measured on our full-sample basis and expressed in US dollars, continues to reach new all-time highs. Admittedly, and contrary to our expectations at the start of the year, the cycle has extended far longer than we anticipated. This report argues that while the level of liquidity may still be abundant, the collateral system through which that liquidity is transmitted is becoming progressively tighter. Two factors largely explain this resilience. First, Federal Reserve tightening has proceeded at a relatively measured pace. Second, governments have increasingly monetised…
- China’s Next Phase
China is entering the next stage of a prolonged balance-sheet adjustment. The challenge is no longer simply weak economic growth, a troubled property market and indebted local governments. It is the interaction between a large stock of debt, insufficient liquidity and persistent deflationary pressures . This report makes three key arguments: First, Chinese liquidity matters globally—but through different channels from US liquidity. Federal Reserve liquidity has its strongest influence on financial markets, particularly equities, credit and overall portfolio beta. People’s Bank of China (PBoC)…
- Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update
Global liquidity has hit a record US$196.3tr, but underlying liquidity is at a 16-month low. A stronger US dollar, weaker collateral values, and slower Chinese liquidity growth are weighing on conditions. Risk appetite remains high, but rising bond volatility poses a risk
- Phoney Press Panic
With some private US nowcasts suggesting that Q3 growth may already be approaching an extraordinary 7%, buying long-dated bonds might appear premature. We have been bearish fixed income throughout this year for exactly this reason. In the near term, this stronger economic growth could still push yields higher. Over the longer run, yields are also likely to remain above the depressed levels of the past decade because nominal GDP (NGDP) growth is settling at a structurally faster pace. Yet investors should not confuse a long-term trend with a cyclical opportunity. While secular forces may keep…
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Data: Substack public leaderboards and publication archives, refreshed nightly, plus public beehiiv sitemaps and recommendation pages, refreshed weekly. Source for this page: Capital Wars. Subscriber counts are Substack’s own rounded public figures, so week-on-week changes move in steps. beehiiv audience sizes are self-reported by the publisher and are not verified. Last snapshot: Oct 21, 2026.