The Gold Trader
Full-time Gold trader with 13 years in the market. Former U.S. Ambassador to Zimbabwe. Every week, I explain what's driving Gold and how I'm trading it.
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What they write about
Weekly gold analysis from a full-time gold trader, organised as a macro brief followed by a levels-and-scenarios report for GLD and XAUUSD. Recurring subjects include inflation releases, central bank policy and speeches, real yields and the Treasury market, and how scheduled events map onto the gold market.
- gold
- precious metals
- macro
- inflation
- central banks
- technical levels
Recent examples: How to survive a week where every macro input is working against Gold [GOLD MARKET MOVERS: Sep 29- Oct 02] · The inflationary mindset: the Fed's new worry
Written from The Gold Trader’s own published post titles and openings in Sep 11, 2026. It describes the subjects the newsletter covers, not its views, and is not investment advice.
Growth history
Subscribers (thousands, nightly)
120K on Sep 10, 2026 → 120K on Sep 30, 2026
Followers (thousands, nightly)
Rank in Substack’s finance leaderboard: #14 today · #15 a week ago
Stats worth sharing
Tracked since Sep 10, 2026 — 21 daily snapshots so far. The card below is built from what we track and refreshes nightly.
- Percentile
- Top 3%
- Best rank seen
- #13
- Rank, 7 days
- +1 place
- Followers added
- +768
- Posts
- 11
- Reactions per post
- 11
- Reactions tracked
- 201
of 525 ranked finance newsletters
on Sep 17, 2026
since tracking began
last 30 days
average, recent posts
across 19 posts
Most-reacted post we have seen: A Treasury story: how the government sells and buys the same bonds — 20 reactions on Aug 23, 2026.
Recent posts
- How to survive a week where every macro input is working against Gold [GOLD MARKET MOVERS: Sep 29- Oct 02]
This post is live and will be written as the week develops and new data and news drop. Please check your TG channel throughout the week for XAUUSD levels updates. ⚡ THE WEEK IN 2 MIN: Gold dropped over 3% on Monday to its lowest level since August 5. Several macro things are pushing in the same direction at once: The market keeps pricing in more hikes. The 2-year yield is approaching 5%. October hike odds have risen to 70–75%, from about 58% a week ago. At the long end, yields are rising too. The 30-year Treasury yield is at its highest since 2004 after weak bond auctions last week. Real…
- The inflationary mindset: the Fed's new worry
Every week I do the work you don't have time for - macro, ETF flows, futures positioning, options walls - and turn it into a single playbook: why Gold is moving, who's on the other side of your trade, and the precise levels to mark on your chart. 📰 PART 1: THE MACRO BRIEF Strong demand data is keeping the Fed hawkish You know the typical horror movie scene. Someone’s getting scary phone calls all night, they call the police terrified, and the cop calls back and says: “we traced the call... it’s coming from inside the house.” That’s basically the plot twist the US data gave us this week. For…
- The Fed now blames demand, not energy, for inflation [GOLD MARKET MOVERS: Sep 23-25]
This post is live and will be written as the week develops and new data and news drop. Please check your TG channel throughout the week for XAUUSD levels updates. ⚡ THE WEEK IN 2 MIN: Between Sunday and Tuesday, Kashkari, Goolsbee, Musalem and Collins all made roughly the same point: inflation is coming from stronger demand and services , not just energy. Oil is not treated as a one-off problem anymore, which is partially why oil gave back the spike, yet Gold is struggling to recover. And since the Fed now turned its focus on demand, we should watch those numbers too - along with price…
- Less gamma, more drama: why this week’s Gold move could travel further
Every week I do the work you don't have time for - macro, ETF flows, futures positioning, options walls - and turn it into a single playbook: why Gold is moving, who's on the other side of your trade, and the precise levels to mark on your chart. 📰 PART 1: THE MACRO BRIEF 🎭 PART 2: FOLLOWING THE MONEY ( Who’s buying, who’s selling) Before the Fed: futures cut risk, ETFs added $335M The COT report ends on Tuesday, September 15 while the Fed announced its rate decision on Wednesday. This gives us a snapshot of how traders prepared for the meeting. Total open interest fell by 1,328 contracts…
- Dot plot: The median was friendly, the distribution wasn't
⚠️ Heads up traders! This is PART 1 of my weekly Gold Insider report. Full flow breakdown, technical key levels, and my trade ideas will drop tomorrow. I’m a Hitchcock fan, and in his movies he often used a MacGuffin technique. A MacGuffin is an object that every character in a movie would chase - say, some briefcase or some secret documents, whatever. As a viewer, you’d spend the whole movie wondering what’s inside but then the movie ends and it turns out that this object didn’t even remotely matter at all for the plot. Wednesday’s dot plot looks a bit like that. All September traders were…
- Can a rate hike could still be good for Gold? [GOLD MARKET MOVERS: Sep 14-18]
Hello traders! Brent pushed above $100 and diesel just crossed $6 a gallon. Every extra dollar on Brent is adding more pressure on the Fed and the market is now pricing 92% chance of a hike on Wednesday. 10-year real yields are also hitting 2.6% - the level not seen since 2007, and according to World Gold Council, above the level that has been historically associated with faster ETF outflows. Add on top of this, we have the positioning risk. COMEX net longs have been rising and a large chunk of those positions were build before the last weeks of losses. If Wednesday Fed gives us hawkish dots…
- Traders bet on a hiking cycle. Does the Fed want one?
Every week I do the work you don't have time for - macro, ETF flows, futures positioning, options walls - and turn it into a single playbook: why Gold is moving, who's on the other side of your trade, and the precise levels to mark on your chart. 📰 PART 1: THE MACRO BRIEF The market has priced 3.4 hikes Friday’s CPI wasn’t a disaster, but it was just neutral-to-bad enough to move the hike odds. Headline monthly and yearly inflation came in just as expected and annual core actually dropped from 2.5% to 2.4%. Core inflation MoM rose 0.3% vs. 0.2% expected - petrol and diesel accounted for a…
- With oil past $100, in-line CPI isn't good enough for Gold [GOLD MARKET MOVERS: Sep 09-11]
Hello traders! Our whole trading week gets squeezed into Thursday (ECB & PPI) and Friday (CPI) and my trading plan is mostly about looking for scalp opportunities (both directions) since there’s not enough time left for a proper swing to develop. Friday’s CPI is the last inflation number we’ll get before FOMC on September 15-16. Brent has just crossed $100 on US-Iran conflict escalation and hike pricing has already moved higher. The odds are now ~ 60% for September and ~87% for December. With energy prices rising, we now need the core numbers of PPI and CPI to come in soft enough to keep that…
- Gold in holiday mode: real levels to watch this week
Happy Labor Day to everyone in the US 🇺🇸 This is the second half of Gold Insider report with key trading zones for GLD/XAUUSD. If you missed the Macro Brief and flow analysis, read it here . Every week I do the work you don't have time for - macro, ETF flows, futures positioning, options walls - and turn it into a single playbook: why Gold is moving, who's on the other side of your trade, and the precise levels to mark on your chart. 📰 PART 1-2: THE MACRO BRIEF + FOLLOWING THE MONEY ( Who’s buying, who’s selling) Click below to read this week’s macro brief and flow analysis. 📊 PART 3…
- Gold’s $4,356 Risk
⚠️ Heads up traders! This is PART 1 of my weekly Gold Insider report. GLD/XAUUSD key levels, and my trade ideas for the week will drop tomorrow Sep 07. Every week I do the work you don't have time for - macro, ETF flows, futures positioning, options walls - and turn it into a single playbook: why Gold is moving, who's on the other side of your trade, and the precise levels to mark on your chart. 📰 PART 1: THE MACRO BRIEF “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in…” After Waller gave his speech on improving inflation Thursday, the Sep hike odds fell to ~50%. Even strong ISM data…
- Inflation: made in the USA [GOLD MARKET MOVERS: Sep 01-04]
This post is live and will be written as the week develops and new data and news drop. Please check your TG channel throughout the week for XAUUSD levels updates. Hello traders! Another week - another round of war inflation problems. We have neither CPI, not PCE data so we have to find inflation reads through proxies like business prices and wages: Tuesday Sep 01 gives us ISM Manufacturing Prices. Thursday Sep 03 - ISM Services Prices and ULC. Friday Sep 04 add to the whole context with Average Hourly Earnings. All of these prints show us where exactly the inflation is coming from - the US…
- Warsh finally told us his plan (just don't call it forward guidance)
Every week I do the work you don't have time for - macro, ETF flows, futures positioning, options walls - and turn it into a single playbook: why Gold is moving, who's on the other side of your trade, and the precise levels to mark on your chart. 📰 PART 1: THE MACRO BRIEF Warsh said the economy is A-ok During the last three month, Warsh has had two press conferences. He gave speeches, answered questions, used plenty of words, and yet we still had very little idea about what the new Fed chair was watching or planning to do. On Friday during his Jackson Hole speech, Warsh finally told us how…
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