The Gold Trader
Full-time Gold trader with 13 years in the market. Former U.S. Ambassador to Zimbabwe. Every week, I explain what's driving Gold and how I'm trading it.
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What they write about
Weekly gold analysis from a full-time gold trader, organised as a macro brief followed by a levels-and-scenarios report for GLD and XAUUSD. Recurring subjects include inflation releases, central bank policy and speeches, real yields and the Treasury market, and how scheduled events map onto the gold market.
- gold
- precious metals
- macro
- inflation
- central banks
- technical levels
Recent examples: The election moved Gold. It didn’t move the Fed. [GOLD MARKET MOVERS: NOV 04-06] · What’s really waiting for Gold after Tuesday
Written from The Gold Trader’s own published post titles and openings in Sep 11, 2026. It describes the subjects the newsletter covers, not its views, and is not investment advice.
Most-mentioned tickers
Symbols named in the headline of a post from the last 30 days, most-covered first. The number is how many of those posts mentioned it.
Read from 1 post headline in the last 30 days. A newsletter that names a company only in the body of a post will not appear here, and a mention is not a recommendation — it only means the symbol came up.
Growth history
Subscribers (thousands, nightly)
120K on Sep 10, 2026 → 121K on Oct 21, 2026
Followers (thousands, nightly)
Rank in Substack’s finance leaderboard: #17 today · #16 a week ago · #17 a month ago
Stats worth sharing
Tracked since Sep 10, 2026 — 63 daily snapshots so far. The card below is built from what we track and refreshes nightly.
- Percentile
- Top 4%
- Best rank seen
- #13
- Rank, 7 days
- −1 place
- Followers added
- +956
- Posts
- 7
- Reactions per post
- 9
- Reactions tracked
- 281
- Tickers covered
- 1
of 525 ranked finance newsletters
on Sep 17, 2026
since tracking began
last 30 days
average, recent posts
across 30 posts
in tracked posts
Most-reacted post we have seen: A Treasury story: how the government sells and buys the same bonds — 20 reactions on Aug 23, 2026.
Recent posts
- The election moved Gold. It didn’t move the Fed. [GOLD MARKET MOVERS: NOV 04-06]
This post is live and will be updated as the week develops and new data and news drop. Please check your TG channel throughout the week for XAUUSD levels updates. ⚡ THE WEEK IN 2 MIN: If you like me slept through the US election result, you likely woke up to a pretty dramatic XAUUSD chart. Created with TradingView Democrats won the House and Senate. Gold rose more than $100 above $4000. and the dollar fell. But in the part of the market I care about most very little changed. US02Y barely moved and have actually started rising right now. December Fed hike odds stayed ~80%. The election results…
- What’s really waiting for Gold after Tuesday
Here’s a stat to chew on: The last five times the president’s party lost the House, Gold gained an average of ~18% over the next year. Four of those five times, it gained at least double digits. The remaining case was basically a flat year. Democrats are now ~96% to take the House on Tuesday. With Gold now near a one-year low, that sounds like a gift for buyers. But I don’t think it’s that simple, for two reasons. 1/ That case of a flat year looks a lot like today. I’ll get to that a little later. 2/ Democrats who are expected win on Tuesday don’t take over until January 3. That leaves 61…
- Forced selling or real Gold weakness? How to tell, and where I’m buying
Every week I do the work you don't have time for - macro, ETF flows, futures positioning, options walls - and turn it into a single playbook: why Gold is moving, who's on the other side of your trade, and the precise levels to mark on your chart. 📰 PART 1: THE MACRO BRIEF Last week, I mentioned one risk in particular: another selloff in AI and tech stocks, which can break 4000 Gold support unless Gold could hold up on a day when the Nasdaq was falling. On Wednesday evening, that risk became real. Tech stocks sold off: 🔻 Alphabet fell 13% on Thursday after its free cash flow turned negative…
- Warsh doesn’t have the room to be dovish, even if he wanted to [GOLD MARKET MOVERS: Oct 28-30]
⚡ THE WEEK IN 2 MIN: This week has two main events: 1/ the FOMC on Wednesday 2/ core PCE on Thursday. Both can either push rate-hike odds higher, or pull them back. My base case is a hold where both events mostly confirm current pricing, leaving Gold inside its recent range. I’m flat into Wednesday. If I take a position, I’ll build it in two parts: half after the press conference, half after PCE. Brent is at ~$115 and inflation breakevens are rising, so I see very little room for Warsh to question a December hike. The pricing that can still move for January though. A second hike by January is…
- Lower yields, a softer dollar and falling stocks - so why did Gold lose 4%?
Every week I do the work you don't have time for - macro, ETF flows, futures positioning, options walls - and turn it into a single playbook: why Gold is moving, who's on the other side of your trade, and the precise levels to mark on your chart. 📰 PART 1: THE MACRO BRIEF This was a strange week for Gold. The Nasdaq sold off. Treasury yields fell and the dollar barely moved. Gold, which should have benefited from the setup, lost ~4% for the week and finished Friday just below 4000. On Thursday, the problem was liquidity The AI problem itself was already around last week. But the scale was…
- Why Gold needs AI stress (just not too much)
Every week I do the work you don't have time for - macro, ETF flows, futures positioning, options walls - and turn it into a single playbook: why Gold is moving, who's on the other side of your trade, and the precise levels to mark on your chart. 📰 PART 1: THE MACRO BRIEF Gold had two completely different halves of the week. September CPI rose 0.6% for the month and 3.7% from a year earlier with gasoline accounting for more than half of the monthly CPI increase. Core also came in above forecast. Yield rose on the news and the dollar hit an 18-month high. Gold fell to 4073. Thursday’s…
- Two inflation reports this week decide whether the Fed hikes again in October [GOLD MARKET MOVERS: Oct 07-09]
⚡ THE WEEK IN 2 MIN: Last week, strong auctions and lower yields reduced the pressure on Gold and helped it break higher. Gold moved up to 4207 on Friday and reached 4217 on Monday Oct 12. Then Hammack, Goolsbee, Kashkari and Waller all made the case for more hikes. With inflation expectations at the highest since May and diesel inventories at a record seasonal low, the hawkish argument is now fairly easy to make. Bowman, Jefferson and Williams were more cautious, citing potential weakness in the labor market. Even so, the market pricing moved toward the hawks. FedWatch now puts the…
- Gold needs to clear one level before this bounce means anything
Every week I do the work you don't have time for - macro, ETF flows, futures positioning, options walls - and turn it into a single playbook: why Gold is moving, who's on the other side of your trade, and the precise levels to mark on your chart. 📰 PART 1: THE MACRO BRIEF 🎭 PART 2: FOLLOWING THE MONEY ( Who’s buying, who’s selling) Last week’s setup mostly played out as expected: early rallies got sold, and 4200–4227 stopped Friday’s move - buyers still haven’t cleared this main resistance. Here’s what was happening beyond the price action. Western investors were selling. Hedge funds cut…
- If the US economy can handle this, maybe rates should be higher still?
⚠️ Heads up traders! This is PART 1 of my weekly Gold Insider report. Full flow breakdown, technical key levels, and my trade ideas will drop tomorrow. PART 1: THE MACRO BRIEF In the movie Inception , DiCaprio gets hired do to something seemingly impossible: he has to plant an idea into one person’s mind so that person believes they came up with it themselves. But the problem is that he cannot just tell that person what to think - obviously the person knows where the idea came from. For the idea to stick, they have to reach it through their own lived experience. The Fed now has the version of…
- Ctrl+F: the words to search for in Wednesday's Fed minutes [GOLD MARKET MOVERS: Oct 07-09]
This post is live and will be updated as the week develops and new data and news drop. Please check your TG channel throughout the week for XAUUSD levels updates. ⚡ THE WEEK IN 2 MIN: Last week, Williams, Jefferson and Bowman pushed back against October hikes, and the market cut the odds to roughly ~20% . Then this week some fairly hot inflation data dropped - ISM services prices paid hit 74.0 , the highest reading since 2022. Every industry in the survey reported higher prices. Last week’s ISM manufacturing prices index was also high at 77.9 . Almost nothing changed in Fed pricing. October…
- How the bond market is doing the Fed's tightening for free
Every week I do the work you don't have time for - macro, ETF flows, futures positioning, options walls - and turn it into a single playbook: why Gold is moving, who's on the other side of your trade, and the precise levels to mark on your chart. 📰 PART 1: THE MACRO BRIEF October hike odds went full circle. December is still locked in We’ve had a month of hike odds drama, but ended up roughly where we started. On September 2 , the odds of a back-to-back hike in October were ~18% . By Oct 06 , they were ~70%. By Friday they were back ~23%. December pricing barely moved though and the odds of…
- How to survive a week where every macro input is working against Gold [GOLD MARKET MOVERS: Sep 29- Oct 02]
This post is live and will be written as the week develops and new data and news drop. Please check your TG channel throughout the week for XAUUSD levels updates. ⚡ THE WEEK IN 2 MIN: Gold dropped over 3% on Monday to its lowest level since August 5. Several macro things are pushing in the same direction at once: The market keeps pricing in more hikes. The 2-year yield is approaching 5%. October hike odds have risen to 70–75%, from about 58% a week ago. At the long end, yields are rising too. The 30-year Treasury yield is at its highest since 2004 after weak bond auctions last week. Real…
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