JunkBondInvestor

Substack by junkbondinvestor · launched Aug 9, 2020

Credit analysis for people who actually read the documents.

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#86
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#36
Subscribers
27K

rounded by Substack

Paid subscribers
100+ paid
Badge
Bestseller 100
Followers
30K
Paid plan
$199/mo
Recommends
7

other newsletters

Most-mentioned tickers

Symbols named in the headline of a post from the last 30 days, most-covered first. The number is how many of those posts mentioned it.

CORZGTNKEELNWL

Read from 4 post headlines in the last 30 days. A newsletter that names a company only in the body of a post will not appear here, and a mention is not a recommendation — it only means the symbol came up.

Growth history

Subscribers (thousands, nightly)

27K on Sep 10, 2026 → 27K on Sep 30, 2026

Followers (thousands, nightly)

Rank in Substack’s finance leaderboard: #86 today · #94 a week ago

Stats worth sharing

Tracked since Sep 10, 2026 — 21 daily snapshots so far. The card below is built from what we track and refreshes nightly.

Percentile
Top 17%

of 525 ranked finance newsletters

Best rank seen
#85

on Sep 27, 2026

Rank, 7 days
+8 places
Followers added
+94

since tracking began

Posts
8

last 30 days

Reactions per post
28

average, recent posts

Reactions tracked
502

across 18 posts

Tickers covered
9

in tracked posts

Most-reacted post we have seen: Credit Weekly: What If They Just Keep Borrowing? — 59 reactions on Aug 9, 2026.

JunkBondInvestor — rank, subscribers and growth, tracked by Stock Market Watch
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Recent posts

  • Credit Weekly: Rates Did Most of the Damage

    The Fed hiked 25bps. And then the market hiked another 60. The second move is the one high yield investors should be watching. Since the end of August, the peak policy rate priced into futures has risen about 60bps. The 5-year Treasury closed above 5% for the first time since 2007, and the high yield index has lost 1.84% in September, with rates doing most of the damage and wider spreads adding to it. Every borrower that needs to refinance now faces a higher base rate. How much that hurts depends on what the borrower does with the money. This week showed who can absorb it. SoftBank borrowed…

  • Keel Infrastructure ($KEEL): What Are the Converts Worth Without a Lease?

    Will they announce a deal? Every Bitcoin miner trying to reinvent themselves as an AI/HPC data center developer gets asked that question. And every one of them has the same pitch. We have the sites, we have the power, we are in discussions with prospective tenants. And the market is waiting for one thing before it gives them credit for any of it... a tenant’s name on a lease. Keel Infrastructure (recently known as Bitfarms) is running that same playbook. Meanwhile, its converts have recently traded down to the 80s from 130 back in June. They’re not distressed by any means; just out of the…

    KEEL

  • Credit Weekly: Who the Hike Hits

    The Fed hiked. It was the first increase since 2023, the vote was unanimous, and the 25bps move takes the range to 3.75% to 4.00%. Warsh called it removing “a dose of accommodation.” He also said strong growth and the AI buildout’s competition for debt are part of why Treasury yields are up. The 10-year is at its highest level since 2007. So what happens 2 days later? A bitcoin miner sells $2.3bn of five-year notes at 8.25% to build a data center for Meta. And gets about $10bn of orders. That deal was in the works before the hike, so it doesn’t tell you anything about the hike. But it shows…

  • Gray Media ($GTN): The Last Two Cheap Coupons

    Gray’s audience is dying. Literally. The people who watch local news at 6pm are in their 60s and 70s. Every year some of them stop watching because they are gone, and the people who would have replaced them get the same information from their phones. The cord cutters take the retrans dollars with them. The advertisers follow the audience. Core has grown in the odd quarter, and there is no version of this where it grows for long. Lenders have kept lending anyway. The cash flow is there, political money covers a lot every other November, and management has paid debt down when it could. That is…

    GTN

  • Credit Weekly: When the Pentagon Becomes the Lender

    Brought to you by 9fin The next lender to Fluidstack may be the Pentagon. I’m not kidding. The Department of Defense’s Office of Strategic Capital is reportedly talking about a roughly $5 billion loan to the GPU cloud provider, last valued at about $18 billion . And the money is for domestic supply chain and manufacturing capacity for data center components. It’s under discussion, not signed. Now $5 billion is about 28% of Fluidstack’s latest valuation, so this is not pocket change. And the company’s valuation more than doubled this year. Meanwhile, issuers have raised more than $400+ billion…

  • Core Scientific ($CORZ): Is It Cheap After the Selloff?

    Core Scientific is down about 40% from its recent highs. That’s not unusual for an AI stock this summer. What’s unusual is what happened to the company while the shares were falling. It finished building nearly everything it had promised CoreWeave. It signed a second tenant, and the tenant is AMD. Those are the two things a skeptic would have told you a year ago were the whole risk. So the risk everybody was worried about has largely been reduced, and the price has gone down. That leaves one question. Is the stock now cheap? To answer that I’m going to walk through the leases one at a time…

    CORZ

  • Credit Weekly: The Window Before the Meeting

    Hope you’re enjoying Labor Day. If you’re in New York or anywhere in the Northeast, you already know the weather is doing its part. A housekeeping note before the market. I’ve been doing a lot of thinking over the last couple of weeks and have a number of new ideas I’d like to implement here, but I want your feedback first. I’ll be sending out a short survey this week to get a better sense of what readers actually want. It will take a couple of minutes, and it will shape what this looks like through year-end. Keep an eye out for it. The probability of a September hike went from about 68% on…

  • Newell Brands ($NWL): The Full Credit Round Trip

    Two years ago, Newell was a fallen angel without a credible path back. The company was guiding to another year of core sales declines and the story hadn’t changed in five years (i.e., too much debt, not enough FCF, and private label taking share). None of that mattered to the credit market though. The bonds still traded roughly in line with BBs. The next 12 months then played out about as expected. The February 2025 guide disappointed, Liberation Day pushed the 2030s past 550bps on China sourcing, and the agencies took the unsecureds from BB to B. By November, the 2030s were at 425bps…

    NWL

  • Credit Weekly: Spreads Are Now a Reason to Hike

    Credit investors have spent the better part of a year explaining why spreads at cycle tights are not the same thing as cheap capital. Yields have done most of the work in 2026 while spreads have mostly sat still, and anyone running a leveraged balance sheet can see it in the coupon on their last refinancing. On Friday, Warsh made the opposite reading part of his case. The speech was mostly about method. Forward guidance is over, the funds rate is the tool, and 2% is fixed. The Chair wants his signals from markets rather than from a regime in which markets trade on the Fed and the Fed trades…

  • AMC Entertainment’s ($AMC) $4 Billion Refinancing Test

    At the start of 2026, AMC had generated ~$388mm of FY’25 adj. EBITDA, liquidity was declining, and the company carried ~$4bn of debt with more than $400mm of annual interest expense. Nearly the entire near-term thesis rested on the 2026 film slate. A strong box office could lift EBITDA toward $600-650mm and get AMC close to FCF breakeven, but the company still lacked a clear path to meaningful organic deleveraging. Six months later, the operating recovery has arrived faster and stronger than expected. AMC reported record 2Q’26 revenue of $1.60bn, up 14% y/y, and adj. EBITDA of $321mm, up…

    AMC

  • Snap Inc. ($SNAP): A Creditor's Guide to the Founder Discount

    There are two kinds of people reading this. The first kind has a teenager at home, which means they already know Snapchat is not dead. The second kind has never opened the app, wrote the company off when Instagram launched Stories, and wrote it off again during the Apple privacy change. Snap should be the easiest credit you’ll ever underwrite. Over $2 billion in cash, FCF positive, growing. What’s not to like? For starters, it’s founder-controlled and has a tendency of reinvesting in speculative projects with unknown payoffs. Add litigation and regulatory overhang (both hard to handicap)…

    SNAP

  • Credit Weekly: The Privacy Premium

    While the leveraged market drifts into its August lull, Jane Street just paid up to leave the public market entirely, telling us what privacy costs. The firm raised $14.6 billion privately in a group led by JPMorgan, with PIMCO in the book, using roughly $11 billion of it to retire its public debt. The new debt costs about ~311bps vs. its existing debt at ~152bps. That works out to roughly $175 million a year of incremental interest, plus about $200 million of one-time make-wholes to exit early. That is the bill, paid voluntarily, by one of the most profitable trading firms on earth. What did…

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Data: Substack public leaderboards and publication archives, refreshed nightly, plus public beehiiv sitemaps and recommendation pages, refreshed weekly. Source for this page: JunkBondInvestor. Subscriber counts are Substack’s own rounded public figures, so week-on-week changes move in steps. beehiiv audience sizes are self-reported by the publisher and are not verified. Last snapshot: Sep 30, 2026.