- Top in Finance
- #74
- Paid leaderboard
- #70
- Subscribers
- 55K
- Paid subscribers
- 100+ paid
- Badge
- Bestseller 100
- Followers
- 102K
- Paid plan
- $30/mo
- Recommends
- 30
rounded by Substack
other newsletters
What they write about
Data-driven analysis of the global economy and financial markets. Recurring subjects include the drivers of bond yields and real interest rates, the measurement and composition of inflation, the productivity effects of artificial intelligence, trade imbalances with China, energy revenues, and cross-country living standards.
- global economy
- bond yields
- inflation
- productivity
- trade
- living standards
Recent examples: Found: America’s Missing Interest Income · France is the Biggest Loser in the Global Rates Reset
Written from The Overshoot’s own published post titles and openings in Sep 11, 2026. It describes the subjects the newsletter covers, not its views, and is not investment advice.
Growth history
Subscribers (thousands, nightly)
54K on Sep 10, 2026 → 55K on Oct 21, 2026
Followers (thousands, nightly)
Rank in Substack’s finance leaderboard: #74 today · #66 a week ago · #84 a month ago
Stats worth sharing
Tracked since Sep 10, 2026 — 42 daily snapshots so far. The card below is built from what we track and refreshes nightly.
- Percentile
- Top 15%
- Best rank seen
- #65
- Rank, 7 days
- −8 places
- Rank, 30 days
- +10 places
- Subscribers added
- +1.0K
- Followers added
- +1.8K
- Posts
- 3
- Reactions per post
- 44
- Reactions tracked
- 706
of 525 ranked finance newsletters
on Oct 13, 2026
since tracking began
since tracking began
last 30 days
average, recent posts
across 16 posts
Most-reacted post we have seen: Rising Bond Yields Are Good, Actually — 80 reactions on Sep 1, 2026.
Recent posts
- Found: America’s Missing Interest Income
It has been three-and-a-half years since I first wrote that the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) was publishing implausible estimates of American businesses’ net interest expense . I repeatedly questioned these estimates and argued that income-based measures were understating both the level and growth rate of U.S. economic activity . As recently as August 26, the official estimate of net interest payments by U.S. corporations in 2026Q2 was negative . I was incredulous . It is therefore my great pleasure to report that the BEA has finally revised its estimates for the past five years —and…
- France is the Biggest Loser in the Global Rates Reset
Borrowing costs are up everywhere. And France—thanks to its dysfunctional domestic conditions and its membership of the euro area—is getting hit the hardest. In the years immediately before the pandemic, long-term yields on government debts in Japan and “core” Europe were roughly zero or negative before inflation, about 1% in the U.K., ~1.5% in Czechia, about 2% in Australia, Canada, the U.S., and Korea, and about 3% in Poland. As of this writing, longer-term yields are now about 3% in Japan, ~3.5% in Germany and Sweden, 4% in Canada and Spain, close to 5% in France and Korea, and a bit over…
- The Fed Finally Gets It
The test of whether you are genuinely sorry for a mistake , according to Maimonides, is if, when faced with the same circumstances as the last time you did wrong, you behave differently. “Not because of fear or a lack of strength,” but because you felt so much regret for what you did that you improved your character in response. Federal Reserve officials may have started this process of atonement. For the past several years, they have repeatedly underestimated both the strength of the U.S. economy and the underlying inflationary trend. Those analytical errors led the central bank to wrongly…
- Just Waiting for Disinflation is Not Enough
Hope is not a strategy. Yet “hope” seems to be the only idea that some Federal Reserve officials have for bringing inflation back to the central bank’s alleged 2% yearly target. Back in 2024, Fed officials’ tolerance for faster-than-desired inflation could be explained by their misplaced concerns about the health of the job market . In 2025, they were unsure how to respond to the barrage of destructive policies coming from the White House, including the constant threats against Fed officials . So far this year, many Fed officials have chosen to blame excess inflation on the war with Iran…
- Rising Bond Yields Are Good, Actually
Yields on longer-term U.S. bonds are now high enough that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent feels compelled to lecture traders that they are misunderstanding the “fundamentals” . Beyond the patronizing language, he has also increased the Treasury’s buyback program, which will marginally reduce the volume of long bonds (20+ year) in circulation while boosting the supply of bills and/or banks’ deposits held at the Federal Reserve . So far, none of this has worked , and Bessent has since claimed that he was just trying to “let market participants know that things maybe aren’t a one-way trip”…
- AI, Productivity, and Rates: Part 2
It is possible that we are on the cusp of a productivity boom. 1 As it happens, the last one started almost exactly thirty years ago and ran for about eight years. During that time, the real value of goods and services produced in an average hour of work rose 14% above what would have been expected based on the prior trend (3.6% average yearly growth vs. 1.7% a year). When the boom ended, the old growth rate returned, but the one-off gains in the level of productivity were retained. That persistent improvement in output/hour is massive, and comparable in magnitude to the persistent losses in…
- AI, Productivity, and Rates: Part I
Two videos you may be interested in from my recent trip to Dalian: a panel discussion I did on “Resisting Autarky” , and a free-wheeling conversation I had with Nikhil Kamath and Zhu Ning . According to the Federal Reserve’s latest policy statement , “productivity growth and capital investment are strong”. At the press conference following the latest meeting , Fed boss Kevin Warsh elaborated that the U.S. economy was in “a race” between efficiency gains, which allow workers to produce more goods and services from the same volume of inputs, and business spending, which has been driving up the…
- U.S. Inflation Is Not Really Slowing
It is perhaps fitting that the official consumer and producer inflation numbers for June, which were flattered by the 9.5% decline in the prices of consumer energy goods, were published just after the U.S. officially restarted its war with Iran . To the extent that the renewed fighting further disrupts the flow of critical commodities, the prices of those goods will have to rise by enough (relative to incomes) to force consumption and supply into balance. 1 As of this writing, front-month Brent crude oil futures cost about $90/barrel, up from about $70/barrel at the beginning of July…
- The Win-Win Solution to "China Shock 2.0"
- The Case for Higher U.S. Rates
- Yes, Living Standards Have Grown Slower in Northwest Europe than in the U.S.
- Russia's Underwhelming Oil Revenue Windfall
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Data: Substack public leaderboards and publication archives, refreshed nightly, plus public beehiiv sitemaps and recommendation pages, refreshed weekly. Source for this page: The Overshoot. Subscriber counts are Substack’s own rounded public figures, so week-on-week changes move in steps. beehiiv audience sizes are self-reported by the publisher and are not verified. Last snapshot: Oct 21, 2026.