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Most-reacted post we have seen: THEY REFUSE TO CHANGE COURSE: Public Debt Grew More Than $700 Billion Since July 1st, A.I. and the Treasury are Competing for the Same Capital, & how Running it Hot Forces the Metals Higher! — 19 reactions on Sep 6, 2026.
The 2023 tantrum is back at the door. The 10-year yield is at 4.963%, just under October 2023’s 4.99% close, the last time this rate shocked housing, borrowers, and the bond market at the same time. That is not a harmless gap of a few hundredths. The 10-year sets mortgages, car loans, business borrowing, and the government’s own interest bill. Near 5%, ordinary households feel it, the Treasury’s tab grows, and the A.I. build gets more expensive to fund. Officials did not like that tape in 2023. They like it less now, with more than $40 trillion of public debt and no pause in the race to…
Investors are positioned as if Hormuz is wide open, inflation is no concern, metals have no structural supply deficit, and central banks are selling gold instead of being generational buyers of it. That book is wrong on every count. Last Friday’s tape printed gold at $4,477 and silver at $66. GDX and SIL both last printed $99. Those are not prints of a market that has already priced in scarcity or hysteria. That is still to come. The last inflation decade of the 1970s paid oil 10x, silver 30x, and gold 23x. Bonds lost 31%. The S&P 500 added 17% nominal and lost 50% real. It took 16 years to…
There is no pause. The A.I. race with China is being treated as existential, which means the buildout does not get to wait for cheaper money, a quieter long end of the bond yield curve, a convenient political window, or literally anything else. Capital for that build is already standing in the same line as the Treasury. Hyperscalers sell bonds to fund A.I. campuses, power, and chips. The government sells duration to fund a $40+ trillion book and a deficit that is still screaming higher. Two giant borrowers, one pool of buyers. That contest lifts yields. It also forces the official defense of…
Silver is six years into a structural deficit. The market has covered the gap by draining the vault, not by opening a wave of new primary mines. And that will eventually pose big problems. Annual shortfalls of 50 million ounces in 2021, 214 in 2022, 142 in 2023, 269 in 2024, 40.3 in 2025, and a projected 46.3 million ounces in 2026 add up to about 762 million ounces drawn from above-ground stocks since 2021. That is not a one-year squeeze. It is a vault that keeps losing metal while ~3/4ths of mine supply still arrives as a byproduct of lead, zinc, copper, and gold. Those host mines do not…
The 60/40 portfolio just met almost a decade where long Treasuries lost money making bond holders the new bagholders. For more than 40 years, every advisor sold the same balance. When stocks fall, bonds pick the portfolio up. When bonds fall, stocks pick the portfolio up. That was the pitch, however, it is no longer the reality. Bank of America now shows 10-year rolling annualized returns on U.S. 15-year-plus Treasuries at minus 2% in August 2026. That sits below December 1959 near 0% and September 1981 near 2%. It is the lowest mark on a chart that starts in 1936. Their title calls those…
Norway’s oil fund still owns one of the largest Treasury books on earth. Its managers just asked Oslo to cut that book. That is a major tell. Norges Bank Investment Management runs about $2.3 trillion. That is the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund. The letter to the finance ministry, signed by CEO Nicolai Tangen and central-bank chief Ida Wolden Bache, went public Friday. They want the government-bond share of the bond book cut from 70% to 50%. Treasuries would fall from 34.1% to 21.9%. Euro-area government paper would fall from 16.8% to 14.1%. Japanese government bonds would rise from…
WATCH THE JIM ROGERS INTERVIEW HERE! Description Jim Rogers sits down with Metals and Miners on 9/4 to talk Fed policy, rising long-end yields, Treasury intervention, the A.I. and Nasdaq bubble, gold, silver, copper, oil, nuclear, and why he still wants every viewer to own physical metal. Rogers does not watch the Fed first. He watches the market. He expects higher interest rates no matter what Washington tries. He expects officials to attempt yield-curve control because they have to be seen doing something. He owns gold and silver, has never sold them, and says he hopes he is smart enough to…
Washington still owns the budget speech and they refuse to change course. On July 1st, U.S. debt printed more than $39.3 trillion. By August 25th, it printed almost $40.1 trillion. The increase is more than $709 trillion. Public debt grew more than $700 billion since July 1st. That is in less than 2 months of borrowing. I’m old enough to remember DOGE, balancing the budget and recovering waste, fraud and abuse in government spending. They ran the Department of Government Efficiency and Elon Musk out of town very quickly. There is no appetite for austerity anywhere within the U.S. government…
Most mining-stock research builds only the case you already want. You filter for the evidence that agrees with you. That is confirmation, not diligence. You pick the miner first. Then you collect the study, the drill hits, and the financing headline that keep the story standing. The other side of the page stays blank. MineVantage’s Investment Thesis Validator and Evidence Engine is built to stop that. It puts bull-case evidence next to bear-case evidence, from the same report, and weights each line by whether it came from a named analysis or from an estimate. Then it rolls that work into 6…
h/t Tavi Costa for chart Tech now spends a larger share of operating cash on CAPEX than the top gold and silver miners. Let that sink in. For more than 30 years, that was not true. The above chart plots capital expenditure as a percentage of cash flow from operations. The white line is the top 10 gold and silver miners listed in the United States and Canada. The red line is the top 10 U.S. technology companies. The miner line sat above for almost the entire window. At the right edge, circled, the tech line crosses above. On this pane, that has not happened since before 1995. A software story…
You can slow an economy until people use less oil. That is not the same thing as finding more barrel. This is the equivalent of the Fed raising rates vs. more supply of oil coming online. Prices at the pump and on the water are being treated as an economic growth problem and yet that’s a problem that a funds-rate hike can fix. If they push economic activity down hard enough, the argument goes, and crude will behave. That only hurts the everyday American. What they are doing is turning a missing barrel of oil into a demand crime and then prescribing a smaller economy as the medicine. That’s…
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s August 19th move looked like it solved the long-end problem, but it only helped for a moment. Help that works for a day is not the same thing as a cure. The market treated the announcement as a completed fix. It was only a first step in a long process and battle. That is the honest read of August 19th. Bessent announced the most recent direct intervention on the long end when the 30-year ticked near 5.3%, the highest since 2007. The yield then eased toward 5.16. Alas, it didn’t stay there very long. It reversed higher. This morning, it is already back over…
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