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Thematic equity research applying a concentrated, Pareto-style approach. Recurring subjects include power generation for data centres including geothermal, memory and semiconductor cycles, humanoid robotics and their component supply chains, and the long-run position of the US dollar. Also publishes portfolio updates.
Recent examples: Top Hedge Fund Stock Picks for 2027 · Pareto Alpha Portfolio +19.8% YTD — November 2026 Update
Written from The Pareto Investor’s own published post titles and openings in Sep 11, 2026. It describes the subjects the newsletter covers, not its views, and is not investment advice.
18K on Sep 10, 2026 → 18K on Oct 21, 2026
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Most-reacted post we have seen: Nuclear Is the New Oil: AI’s Power Bottleneck Trade — 126 reactions on Oct 12, 2026.
Dear investors, In February, the Goldman Sachs Hedge Industry VIP ETF (GVIP) placed SanDisk, Micron and Western Digital near the top of the hedge fund consensus list. This year to 30 October 2026, Micron returned 210% , SanDisk 385% and Western Digital 113%, while the S&P 500 returned 12%, including dividends. The memory trade in 2026: SanDisk +385%, Micron +210% and Western Digital +113% this year to 30 Oct, against +12% for the S&P 500 and +2% for GVIP. Source: Yahoo Finance adjusted closes, dividends included, 31 Dec 2025 to 30 Oct 2026. That memory trade was the easy part and the list has…
Dear investors, I am sending this month’s portfolio update earlier than usual because several things changed in the market this week. The market has started asking a dangerous question: what if the capex boom cannot pay for itself? On 22 October, Meta beat revenue expectations and still fell 7%. It raised the bottom of its 2026 capex range to $135–145 billion, reported its first cash burn in more than a decade, and announced new non-voting shares to help pay for it. Free cash flow was minus $2.12 billion, against plus $10.63 billion a year earlier, Reuters reported . The Nasdaq fell 2.6%, its…
Debt and political crisis. Photo illustration: Axios. Dear investors, Which major Western country will break first? The expected answer is usually Japan, because its debt is enormous, or America, because its deficits keep setting records. Britain is another favourite, because it pays the highest borrowing rate in the G7. I think all three answers miss the more important question. Sovereign stress isn’t a contest to see who owes the most. A government can keep paying every creditor while its problems become expensive for everyone else, through banks, currencies, taxes, corporate borrowing…
Dear investors, Japan is often treated as a local macro story. A weak yen. An aging population. A cautious central bank . Government debt that has looked alarming for decades without producing the crisis investors expected. That framing is now too narrow. Japan matters because it has spent much of the past three decades exporting capital to the rest of the world. Its banks, insurers, pension funds , corporations, and households have been among the most important providers of savings to global markets. When Japanese interest rates were near zero, Japanese investors had every incentive to seek…
Donald Trump at a giant chessboard, a nod to the idea that an oil shock could leave America stronger than its energy-importing rivals. Dear investors, I have been asked the same question more than any other over the past few weeks: “Is this stagflation?” My honest answer is that we are close enough that the distinction no longer matters for your portfolio. Headline US inflation has climbed back to 3.7%. Euro area inflation is running at almost the same pace. Oil is trading well above $120 a barrel. The US 10-year Treasury yield is above 5%. And meanwhile the economy, which was supposed to be…
OpenAI’s audacious infrastructure buildout: Starting at 230 megawatts in 2025, the company projects reaching 2 GW by year-end and scaling to 250 gigawatts by 2033—a capacity rivaling the United States’ 488 GW and surpassing India’s 223 GW. This 1.8x annual growth trajectory represents one of the most aggressive infrastructure expansions in corporate history. Dear investors, Sam Altman just dropped the most expensive prediction in history. By 2033, OpenAI alone is projected to consume 250 gigawatts of energy —more than the entire country of India uses today. In a leaked internal memo (…
Dear investors, If there is one idea that separates successful long-term investors from perpetual market tourists, it is this: investing rewards patience. Not passive ignorance. Not blind optimism. Not refusing to acknowledge mistakes. Patience. The ability to own productive assets through uncertainty . The discipline to distinguish a temporary decline in price from a permanent deterioration in value. The emotional control to avoid turning a market correction into a life-changing financial mistake. A long-term stock-market chart tells the story better than most textbooks. Data as of Jun 30…
Pareto Alpha Portfolio – 12 september 2026 Dear investors, I am sending this month’s portfolio update earlier than usual because a great deal has changed in the market over the past two weeks. Higher energy prices are initially bullish for commodities, but beyond a certain point they can become self-defeating by driving inflation, tightening financial conditions, and destroying demand. Rising oil, diesel, and transport costs raise the risk that central banks cannot ease aggressively even if growth slows. That is a more difficult environment for long-duration assets, richly valued cyclicals…
Pareto Alpha Portfolio Performance Dear investors, This month’s portfolio update is short on action and important on context. I have made no changes to any of the three Pareto Portfolios. The energy rotation I made on 15 September remains in place. Since then, the market has moved further in the direction that rotation anticipated. Higher energy prices, tight refined-product markets, and renewed inflation risk have strengthened the case for the current positioning rather than changing it. Higher energy prices are initially bullish for commodities, but beyond a certain point they can become…
Dear investors, For almost thirty years, shorting Japanese government bonds had a nickname on trading desks: the widowmaker. Hedge funds kept betting that a country with the largest debt in the developed world would eventually have to pay for it. Yields kept falling, and the trade kept losing. This autumn, the widowmaker finally paid out. On 7 October the 10-year Japanese government bond yielded 3.11%, its highest level since August 1996. A day earlier the 30-year yield set a record. At the end of 2021, the same 10-year bond paid 0.09%. Japan’s 10-year and 30-year government bond yields…
The “Technate of America” map, issued by Technocracy Inc. with the July 1940 number of its magazine Technocracy. A historical idea, not evidence of a modern plan. Source: Norman B. Leventhal Map & Education Center, Boston Public Library. Dear investors, What would a more closely connected North American economic system be worth? Not as a political union. As an investment proposition. American technology and capital. Canadian energy and minerals. Venezuelan oil. Panama’s canal. And Greenland’s strategic position and resource base. That is the version of the “Technate of America” that interests…
Only a few companies have dominated historical US stock market returns. Cumulative % of wealth creation of the top 1,100 companies. Source: Hendrik Bessembinder / FT. Dear investors, The stock market is a wealth-creation machine. It is not a wealth-creation machine for the stocks inside it. That distinction is easy to miss. Every year, thousands of companies get sorted by the same variables. Cheapest first. Highest yield first. Lowest debt first. Most oversold first. Highest growth first. Those screens can be useful. But they all make the same mistake. They start with the stock. I want to…
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