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Contrarian finance and politics commentary, often on parts of the market the author considers overlooked. Recurring subjects include artificial-intelligence valuations and regulation, federal debt, private credit and credit quality, Japanese insurers and bond losses, and speculative small-cap sectors.
Recent examples: Bearish Beyond This ‘Blue Wave’ Market Bounce · Even More Proof That Commercial Real Estate Is Cracking
Written from QTR’s Fringe Finance’s own published post titles and openings in Sep 11, 2026. It describes the subjects the newsletter covers, not its views, and is not investment advice.
52K on Sep 10, 2026 → 53K on Oct 21, 2026
Rank in Substack’s finance leaderboard: #40 today · #38 a week ago · #43 a month ago
Tracked since Sep 10, 2026 — 62 daily snapshots so far. The card below is built from what we track and refreshes nightly.
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Most-reacted post we have seen: Bonds Are About To Crash The Stock Market — 394 reactions on Sep 24, 2026.
Well, the voters have spoken. Screamed, actually. And if last night’s election results were supposed to provide some kind of reprieve for the Trump administration, they did precisely the opposite. Democrats delivered a decisive, sweeping victory, taking control of both the House and Senate and flipping seats in places Republicans have considered safe for generations . “Democrats are on track to win the largest House majority since 2008, when they won 257 seats,” Alicia Parlapiano of the New York Times wrote this morning. Chart: NY Times Perhaps most remarkable was Texas, where Democrats…
I’ve been skeptical of commercial real estate for years , and one of my central arguments has been relatively simple: much of the industry spent the better part of a decade operating under the assumption that artificially cheap money, ever-rising property valuations, and perpetually available financing were permanent features of the economic landscape. An…
With the midterm elections now here, I wanted to quickly lay out the three potential scenarios I see unfolding, and how I think the stock market could react to each. Most of my readers are already familiar with my first, and what I think could happen to markets as a result: As I’ve been prattling on about for month, I believe the market is already sittin…
If I had to boil down my entire view of the market right now into 15 points, these would be them. Some are things I’ve been writing about for months, others are more immediate observations, but taken together, they represent how I see the big picture unfolding and what I’m watching in the days, weeks, and months ahead. As always, this is not financial ad…
The cracks in the AI trade are getting harder to ignore, with the NASDAQ plunging nearly -4% on Friday. And this is certainly not the headline the artificial intelligence industry wanted heading into the weekend. Late Friday, the Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI, arguably the most recognizable company in the entire AI boom, has been forced to low…
While Wall Street remains preoccupied with unfolding shitshow in tech and AI right now, there’s another little problem quietly developing beneath the surface from a sector I’ve been warning about nonstop for 2 years : private credit defaults just hit a record high. According to Forbes, citing Fitch Ratings’ latest third-quarter private credit report , the …
The Brazilian selloff over the last 36 hours is a reminder that political outcomes can become catalysts for violent market repricing. With the midterm elections just days away, I think investors should consider what a Democratic victory could mean for a stock market already showing signs of exhaustion. I’ve spent months arguing that extraordinary concentration in technology stocks, speculative excess surrounding artificial intelligence, and uncomfortable valuations have created conditions for a significant correction. Others whom I respect are coming to the same conclusions . The election…
I’ve said recently that GDX is my favorite investment idea in the world right now, and that hasn’t changed. My thesis has been that gold and gold miners could get dragged down with everything else in a broader market liquidation, only to come roaring back and eventually make new highs . So far, that scenario appears to be in play, and I’m watching it closely. But there’s another idea that’s rapidly becoming my second-favorite developig investment opportunity in the market , particularly with a multiyear time horizon. It’s a corner of tech that I think could eventually replace AI and…
While the Nasdaq is getting its teeth kicked in Friday morning on disappointing earnings from Amazon and Intel, I’m keeping a close eye on another corner of the market that I believe could play an outsized role in the next major selloff: cryptocurrency. I’ve argued before that crypto could either catalyze or exacerbate the next market crash . In my opinio…
I’d like to think I’m being hyperbolic with this title…but, you know… I might not be. Here’s the rub this fine Thursday afternoon. Both Google and Amazon just missed earnings expectations the last two days, both stocks are getting their teeth kicked in, and the Nasdaq has fallen -1.4% during regular trading before shedding another -1.4% after hours today.…
Steve Eisman, the investor made famous by The Big Short for recognizing the subprime mortgage disaster before much of Wall Street, is now accusing Anthropic of deliberately withholding its latest quarterly financial statements from investors ahead of its potentially $2 trillion IPO. Speaking Wednesday on Prof G Markets , Eisman questioned why Anthropic’s …
I‘ve been harping on the problems in commercial real estate for years now, and one of the more interesting developments over the last several months has been how little anybody seems to be talking it them anymore. For a while, commercial real estate was supposedly going to bring down the banking system. Then the regional bank failures came and went, the …
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