Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)
My goal is to make economic policy and macroeconomics better.
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What they write about
Analysis of US monetary policy and how it is made. Recurring subjects include FOMC decisions and minutes, Federal Reserve leadership and communication, the inflation and labour data feeding those decisions, and the design of the institution itself. Also runs reader question-and-answer editions.
- monetary policy
- federal reserve
- inflation
- labour market
- economic policy
Recent examples: Questions for the Chair · Costly medicine
Written from Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)’s own published post titles and openings in Sep 11, 2026. It describes the subjects the newsletter covers, not its views, and is not investment advice.
Growth history
Subscribers (thousands, nightly)
42K on Sep 10, 2026 → 42K on Sep 30, 2026
Followers (thousands, nightly)
Rank in Substack’s finance leaderboard: #68 today · #64 a week ago
Stats worth sharing
Tracked since Sep 10, 2026 — 21 daily snapshots so far. The card below is built from what we track and refreshes nightly.
- Percentile
- Top 13%
- Best rank seen
- #59
- Rank, 7 days
- −4 places
- Followers added
- +1.0K
- Posts
- 4
- Reactions per post
- 112
- Reactions tracked
- 1.6K
of 525 ranked finance newsletters
on Sep 17, 2026
since tracking began
last 30 days
average, recent posts
across 14 posts
Most-reacted post we have seen: Something is shifting in the inflation picture — 202 reactions on Sep 7, 2026.
Recent posts
- Questions for the Chair
Source: Federal Reserve, September 2026 Press Conference. Last week, the Fed raised its policy rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 3¾ to 4 percent, on a unanimous vote. That’s a notable shift: at the Fed’s meeting six weeks earlier, only three of the twelve voters had favored a hike. In its one sentence of explanation, the FOMC statement said that it “will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent [inflation] goal.” In the Summary of Economic Projections , officials centered on one more hike this year, with rates ending next year at that same level. Modest rate…
- Costly medicine
Fed’s Eccles Building. June 2026. My photo. It's Fed Week, even if headlines from the Middle East and on AI are stealing some attention. They should. Those stories also drive the inflation risks the Fed is responding to. Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee is highly likely to raise the federal funds rate by a quarter point. Last week, I explained why I favor the increase. In a survey of former Fed officials and staff, twenty-nine, including me, called for a rate increase versus one who wanted to stay on hold. Market pricing suggests a 90%+ chance of an increase. The decision is the…
- Something is shifting in the inflation picture
Hike or hold? That is the question when the Fed meets next week. Going in, it’s clear that Fed officials are divided on the answer. The division isn't the kind that a single CPI print will resolve. In today’s post, I explain why I moved recently from hold to hike as the appropriate policy. My Bloomberg interview before Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech covered some of my argument, and here I go deeper on the inflation analysis. In the end, I am no longer confident that PCE inflation will move back to 2% in the next year or two without the Fed raising interest rates. Above all, the upside risks to…
- Welcome, Mr. Chairman
Credit: Natalie Behring / Stringer via Getty Images. Kevin Warsh on August 28, 2026, in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Kevin Warsh’s speech last Friday in Jackson Hole was a good one. It was the speech he needed to give. Warsh opened with AI—100% human-written text, I checked. Then he turned to his arguments against forward guidance, his seven principles of monetary policy, and closed with a discussion of how he sees the economy now, including his first analysis of inflation data. Warsh came down from 30,000 feet and found firmer footing. The speech was true to Kevin Warsh, and it was the first time…
- Read the Minutes, Fade the Presser
The July FOMC minutes and the press room, July 29, 2026. Source: Federal Reserve. Yesterday, the Fed published the minutes of its July FOMC meeting. Together with the statement and the press conference directly after the meeting three weeks ago, we now have a fairly complete picture of Kevin Warsh’s second meeting as Chair, and it’s an unusual picture. The Chair's account of the decision to hold and the Committee's record of it do not tell the same story. Warsh came to the Fed calling for regime change, and signs suggest change is well underway, at least in how the Fed communicates. As…
- Go to the mountains, come down from 30,000 feet
Source: my photo, Grand Teton National Park. A week from Friday, Kevin Warsh will deliver his first speech as Chair at the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium . The majestic backdrop of the Grand Teton is a world away from the Fed’s stuffy offices in DC, but the test will be the same as at every press conference: what does Warsh say? In today’s post, I offer perspectives on the first Jackson Hole speeches of the three previous Fed Chairs, what I want to hear from Warsh, and why a strong, credible Fed matters more than ever. What’s in a Jackson Hole speech? With the benefit of hindsight, a Fed…
- You asked, I answered
Today’s post for paid subscribers answers many of the questions you posed last week . Thank you for the thoughtful questions! My intent was to answer at least one question from each person. If I somehow missed you, please let me know, and I will correct that. I had a lot of fun thinking through these, and don’t be surprised if some are the seeds for futu…
- Thank you, and ask me anything
Today’s post is for paid subscribers only. Let me start by thanking you for your support of my writing here. I haven’t had much paid-only content for a while, as many of you know, and I'm glad to be writing more again. I want to make sure you feel valued, because you are! I also want to make sure you're getting the kind of analysis that brought you here.
- Warsh: "We're Sticking With It" ... Until January
A few weeks ago, I posed a question for Kevin Warsh: “2% of what?” Listening to his Congressional testimony, I became concerned that PCE inflation was not his yardstick for judging success at the Fed. I also wrote about him conflating target inflation and underlying inflation. Yesterday, we got his answer. A half hour into the press conference , Paul Wiseman of the Associated Press asked the question: WISEMAN: When you talk about the 2 percent inflation target, what measure are you relying on? Today’s post is about Warsh’s answer, but let’s start with the correct answer: PCE inflation. That’s…
- Making a Statement
Wednesday is decision day at the Federal Reserve, the culmination of an intense two-day meeting and a debate that’s been running for six weeks since the June meeting. It boils down to one question: inflation is too high; what should the Fed do about it? It might be a straightforward question, but the answer is anything but. Coming to an agreement is what the “ good family fight ” at the Fed will be about this week. Most of the coverage heading into this week’s meeting has focused on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh—whether it’s his low-information communication style or a need to establish his…
- 2% of What?
Credit: Getty Images. Yamada Taro. Kevin Warsh is a man of catchphrases: task force, first principles, a good family fight. Catchphrases can be useful if we all attach the same meaning to them. Two days of hearings before Congress this week clarified that when Warsh commits to “price stability,” he attaches a different meaning to it than the rest of the Fed does. When I read “the Committee will deliver price stability” in the June FOMC statement , I translated that as PCE inflation at 2% by 2028. When I hear Warsh say "price stability," I am now unsure what he means. If we do not all agree on…
- What will it take for the Fed to hike?
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