Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)
My goal is to make economic policy and macroeconomics better.
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What they write about
Analysis of US monetary policy and how it is made. Recurring subjects include FOMC decisions and minutes, Federal Reserve leadership and communication, the inflation and labour data feeding those decisions, and the design of the institution itself. Also runs reader question-and-answer editions.
- monetary policy
- federal reserve
- inflation
- labour market
- economic policy
Recent examples: Interrogating confusion at the Fed · What will it take to be confident about inflation?
Written from Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)’s own published post titles and openings in Sep 11, 2026. It describes the subjects the newsletter covers, not its views, and is not investment advice.
Growth history
Subscribers (thousands, nightly)
42K on Sep 10, 2026 → 42K on Oct 21, 2026
Followers (thousands, nightly)
Rank in Substack’s finance leaderboard: #77 today · #100 a week ago · #88 a month ago
Stats worth sharing
Tracked since Sep 10, 2026 — 62 daily snapshots so far. The card below is built from what we track and refreshes nightly.
- Percentile
- Top 15%
- Best rank seen
- #59
- Rank, 7 days
- +23 places
- Rank, 30 days
- +11 places
- Followers added
- +2.8K
- Posts
- 3
- Reactions per post
- 112
- Reactions tracked
- 1.9K
of 525 ranked finance newsletters
on Sep 17, 2026
since tracking began
last 30 days
average, recent posts
across 17 posts
Most-reacted post we have seen: Something is shifting in the inflation picture — 210 reactions on Sep 7, 2026.
Recent posts
- Interrogating confusion at the Fed
John Williams. Credit: Getty Images Apu Gomes / Stringer. The Fed voted 10 to 2 last week to hold rates steady at 3 3/4 to 4 percent. Fed Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a quarter-point increase. I agree with the dissenters, but today’s post is about Fed communication, not rates. That’s my bigger concern. Comms confusion at the Warsh Fed I have tried hard to piece together communications at the Fed since Warsh took the helm, cataloging the ups and downs and even offering some unsolicited advice . It’s time for me to revise some of my prior…
- What will it take to be confident about inflation?
A question I was asked repeatedly this year on Bloomberg: “Are you confident inflation is going back to 2%?” Early in the year, I said yes; the temporary boost from energy prices and tariffs would wane, delivering the necessary disinflation. By the end of the summer, I was much less confident. In September , I shifted to favoring modest rate hikes as insurance against persistently elevated inflation. Risk management was a signature approach of the Powell Fed and was also the most common reason given in the FOMC minutes for the September rate increase. Information since the September meeting…
- Hand the pen to the Committee
Credit: Emilija Manevska via Getty Images. Three meetings make a trend. Under Chair Warsh, we no longer learn the Committee’s reasoning on the day of the decision. Instead, we must wait three weeks for the FOMC minutes. The statement has been cut by more than half, and the press conference no longer sticks closely to the Committee’s views. The cost of that delay showed up in markets this time, which priced in more rate hikes than the Committee itself projects. My complaint is with the communications, not the decision. I agree with the quarter-point rate increase and share the risk-management…
- Questions for the Chair
Source: Federal Reserve, September 2026 Press Conference. Last week, the Fed raised its policy rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 3¾ to 4 percent, on a unanimous vote. That’s a notable shift: at the Fed’s meeting six weeks earlier, only three of the twelve voters had favored a hike. In its one sentence of explanation, the FOMC statement said that it “will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent [inflation] goal.” In the Summary of Economic Projections , officials centered on one more hike this year, with rates ending next year at that same level. Modest rate…
- Costly medicine
Fed’s Eccles Building. June 2026. My photo. It's Fed Week, even if headlines from the Middle East and on AI are stealing some attention. They should. Those stories also drive the inflation risks the Fed is responding to. Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee is highly likely to raise the federal funds rate by a quarter point. Last week, I explained why I favor the increase. In a survey of former Fed officials and staff, twenty-nine, including me, called for a rate increase versus one who wanted to stay on hold. Market pricing suggests a 90%+ chance of an increase. The decision is the…
- Something is shifting in the inflation picture
Hike or hold? That is the question when the Fed meets next week. Going in, it’s clear that Fed officials are divided on the answer. The division isn't the kind that a single CPI print will resolve. In today’s post, I explain why I moved recently from hold to hike as the appropriate policy. My Bloomberg interview before Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech covered some of my argument, and here I go deeper on the inflation analysis. In the end, I am no longer confident that PCE inflation will move back to 2% in the next year or two without the Fed raising interest rates. Above all, the upside risks to…
- Welcome, Mr. Chairman
Credit: Natalie Behring / Stringer via Getty Images. Kevin Warsh on August 28, 2026, in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Kevin Warsh’s speech last Friday in Jackson Hole was a good one. It was the speech he needed to give. Warsh opened with AI—100% human-written text, I checked. Then he turned to his arguments against forward guidance, his seven principles of monetary policy, and closed with a discussion of how he sees the economy now, including his first analysis of inflation data. Warsh came down from 30,000 feet and found firmer footing. The speech was true to Kevin Warsh, and it was the first time…
- Read the Minutes, Fade the Presser
The July FOMC minutes and the press room, July 29, 2026. Source: Federal Reserve. Yesterday, the Fed published the minutes of its July FOMC meeting. Together with the statement and the press conference directly after the meeting three weeks ago, we now have a fairly complete picture of Kevin Warsh’s second meeting as Chair, and it’s an unusual picture. The Chair's account of the decision to hold and the Committee's record of it do not tell the same story. Warsh came to the Fed calling for regime change, and signs suggest change is well underway, at least in how the Fed communicates. As…
- Go to the mountains, come down from 30,000 feet
Source: my photo, Grand Teton National Park. A week from Friday, Kevin Warsh will deliver his first speech as Chair at the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium . The majestic backdrop of the Grand Teton is a world away from the Fed’s stuffy offices in DC, but the test will be the same as at every press conference: what does Warsh say? In today’s post, I offer perspectives on the first Jackson Hole speeches of the three previous Fed Chairs, what I want to hear from Warsh, and why a strong, credible Fed matters more than ever. What’s in a Jackson Hole speech? With the benefit of hindsight, a Fed…
- You asked, I answered
Today’s post for paid subscribers answers many of the questions you posed last week . Thank you for the thoughtful questions! My intent was to answer at least one question from each person. If I somehow missed you, please let me know, and I will correct that. I had a lot of fun thinking through these, and don’t be surprised if some are the seeds for futu…
- Thank you, and ask me anything
Today’s post is for paid subscribers only. Let me start by thanking you for your support of my writing here. I haven’t had much paid-only content for a while, as many of you know, and I'm glad to be writing more again. I want to make sure you feel valued, because you are! I also want to make sure you're getting the kind of analysis that brought you here.
- Warsh: "We're Sticking With It" ... Until January
A few weeks ago, I posed a question for Kevin Warsh: “2% of what?” Listening to his Congressional testimony, I became concerned that PCE inflation was not his yardstick for judging success at the Fed. I also wrote about him conflating target inflation and underlying inflation. Yesterday, we got his answer. A half hour into the press conference , Paul Wiseman of the Associated Press asked the question: WISEMAN: When you talk about the 2 percent inflation target, what measure are you relying on? Today’s post is about Warsh’s answer, but let’s start with the correct answer: PCE inflation. That’s…
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Data: Substack public leaderboards and publication archives, refreshed nightly, plus public beehiiv sitemaps and recommendation pages, refreshed weekly. Source for this page: Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM). Subscriber counts are Substack’s own rounded public figures, so week-on-week changes move in steps. beehiiv audience sizes are self-reported by the publisher and are not verified. Last snapshot: Nov 10, 2026.