
At The Transcript, we read dozens of earnings call transcripts each week and take note of interesting and important quotes from management about the economy and industry trends. The best and most important quotes are compiled in The Transcript, our weekly
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Rank in Substack’s finance leaderboard: #106 today · #99 a week ago
Tracked since Sep 10, 2026 — 21 daily snapshots so far. The card below is built from what we track and refreshes nightly.
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Welcome to Catalyst Watch at The Transcript, a report for paid subscribers that highlights investment themes from this week’s newsletter . Share The Transcript 1. Supply and Demand for Capital Will Set Interest Rates The Fed raised short-term interest rates last week, and Warsh implied that he sees policy as relatively accommodative at the moment. But under the Warsh Fed, short-term rates may be less relevant than they have been in the recent past. Warsh appears happy to let market forces move long-term rates rather than control the yield curve via the rate-setting mechanism. In this way, it…
Summary: The Fed raised rates last week. Warsh implied that he sees policy as relatively accommodative. In AI, safety has taken center stage. Safety programs will require even more compute. Editor’s Note: We have reserved the sections after Macro for our premium subscribers. If you’re not already a premium subscriber, please consider subscribing. Share The Transcript Macro The Fed raised rates “Job gains have kept pace with the workforce and the unemployment rate has changed little. But inflation remains elevated. Today’s policy action will support a timelier return to the committee’s 2…
Welcome to Catalyst Watch at The Transcript, a report for paid subscribers that highlights investment themes from this week’s newsletter . Share The Transcript 1. Inflation Expectations are Broadening Earlier this year, rising oil prices were viewed as a relatively transient driver of inflation. However, the longer the conflict with Iran has dragged on, the more that higher oil prices are coming to be viewed as a new normal. This, along with AI spending, appears to be starting to rebase inflation expectations. We’ve noted sentiment along these lines in past issues of Catalyst Watch . This…
Summary: Not much changed in the economic story last week. The economy remains strong. The AI supply chain is bottlenecked and could remain so through 2030. Editor’s Note: We have made this week’s newsletter available to all subscribers. If you’re not already a premium subscriber, please consider subscribing. Share The Transcript Macro Consumer spending remains strong “The overall macro environment remains very supportive of both consumer spend and business spend. I continue to be impressed by how resilient consumers are. I mean, in the U.S., that resilience like continues to shine through…
Welcome to Catalyst Watch at The Transcript, a report for paid subscribers that highlights investment themes from this week’s newsletter . Share The Transcript 1. AI is Moving The Needle On Macroeconomic Indicators AI has dominated the capital markets narrative for several years already. In recent months, the spending has been impacting the real economy more and more. This week, several quotes stood out in this respect. Expeditors International’s management team highlighted a few numbers that captured the scale of the mobilization: “And in terms of economic impact, the economic impact is…
Summary: The US economy is very strong. Consumers are resilient, and AI spending is having a measurable impact on GDP. Editor’s Note: We have reserved the sections after Macro for our premium subscribers. If you’re not already a premium subscriber, please consider subscribing. Share The Transcript Macro Some consumers are strained, but the economy is very strong “So, you can see there’s still, still strong demand, but I think you do feel the customer, there’s a consumer that is still clearly feeling the pain and struggling and having to stretch a lot further to, with that, with that dollar…
Welcome to Catalyst Watch at The Transcript, a report for paid subscribers that highlights investment themes from this week’s newsletter . Share The Transcript 1. Jackson Hole Kevin Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole last week. His speech focused primarily on his philosophy around monetary policy. He does not want markets to be focused on the Fed’s next move: “The Fed should be humble and never naïve. The Fed plays an essential role in the economy and the markets. And our tools are powerful. We determine the path of short-term interest rates. And market participants will always try to anticipate…
Summary: The economy is strong. Consumers continue to spend, and the AI industry is becoming a macroeconomic variable. Kevin Warsh delivered a speech at Jackson Hole. Inflation pressures persist. Editor’s Note: We have made this week’s newsletter available to all subscribers. If you’re not already a premium subscriber, please consider subscribing. Share The Transcript Macro The economy is resilient “For my part, today I am impressed by the overall performance of the economy, which appears to have strengthened. One indicator of strength is how well an economy holds up to shocks. On that score…
Welcome to Catalyst Watch at The Transcript, a report for paid subscribers that highlights investment themes from this week’s newsletter . Share The Transcript 1. Bessent’s Buybacks A few weeks ago, we wrote about how Kevin Warsh’s philosophy of Federal Reserve management could reshape the yield curve. This week, the potential second-order effects of that philosophy appeared to catch the Treasury Department’s attention. Scott Bessent seems less comfortable than Warsh with leaving long-term interest rates entirely to the market. In response to rising yields, Treasury increased its bond…
Summary: We’re in the final weeks of summer, and the news is slow. Not much has changed in the economy. Retailers reported solid growth. AI spending continues. The Treasury Department’s intervention into bond markets was the news of the week. Editor’s Note: We have reserved the sections after Macro for our premium subscribers. If you’re not already a premium subscriber, please consider subscribing. Share The Transcript Macro The US economy is a standout “The United States was a standout, not just because of the World Cup, but actually because of the underlying fundamentals of the economy…
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