Par yield as of October 19, 2026 · official U.S. Treasury data
| Date | Yield | Change |
|---|---|---|
| October 19, 2026 | 4.94% | +5 bp |
| October 16, 2026 | 4.89% | -2 bp |
| October 15, 2026 | 4.91% | -9 bp |
| October 14, 2026 | 5.00% | +0 bp |
| October 13, 2026 | 5.00% | -2 bp |
| October 9, 2026 | 5.02% | +3 bp |
| October 8, 2026 | 4.99% | -4 bp |
| October 7, 2026 | 5.03% | +0 bp |
| October 6, 2026 | 5.03% | -3 bp |
| October 5, 2026 | 5.06% | — |
The 5-year Treasury yield sits in what traders call the belly of the curve — the stretch of maturities that responds most directly to where investors think the Federal Reserve is heading over the next few years. It is less famous than the 10-year and more informative than either about the expected policy path.
Five years is a deliberate sweet spot. It is long enough to span a complete tightening or easing cycle, so it prices a full arc of Fed policy rather than the next meeting or two. But it is short enough that term premium — the compensation demanded for locking money away — stays modest, so the yield is not muddied by the duration-demand effects that dominate the long end.
The practical consequence is that when the market repriced its Fed expectations, the 5-year often moves more than the 10-year or the 30-year. If you want one number that summarizes what investors think rates will average over the medium term, this is the cleanest candidate on the curve.
The 5-year is central to how markets measure expected inflation. The gap between the nominal 5-year yield and the 5-year inflation-protected (TIPS) yield gives the 5-year breakeven — the inflation rate at which owning either would have paid the same.
Economists lean even harder on the 5-year-5-year forward: what the market implies about the five-year period beginning five years from now. Because it looks past the current cycle entirely, central bankers treat it as a gauge of whether long-run inflation expectations remain anchored, which makes 5-year instruments quietly important to policy debates.
Medium-term Treasury yields inform the pricing of auto loans, five-year fixed business borrowing, and the intermediate corporate bonds that fund much ordinary corporate activity. Adjustable-rate mortgage products with five-year initial periods sit in the same neighborhood.
For portfolio investors the 5-year is a common core holding: meaningfully more yield than short bills in a normal curve, with far less price sensitivity to rate moves than a 30-year bond. That risk-reward balance is why intermediate bond funds cluster around this part of the curve.
Comparing the 5-year with the 2-year shows how quickly the market expects policy to change: a wide gap implies rates are expected to move substantially over the coming years. Comparing it with the 10-year isolates the term premium sitting in the longer maturity.
Traders formalize this with the 2s-5s-10s butterfly, a position on whether the belly is rich or cheap relative to the wings. You do not need to trade it to use the idea — when the 5-year moves out of line with both neighbors, something specific is being priced about the middle of the policy path.
| Maturity | Yield | 1-Day Change | vs 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 4.11% | -1 bp | -83 bp |
| 2M | 4.17% | +0 bp | -77 bp |
| 3M | 4.27% | +1 bp | -67 bp |
| 6M | 4.37% | +3 bp | -57 bp |
| 1Y | 4.50% | +4 bp | -44 bp |
| 2Y | 4.77% | +3 bp | -17 bp |
| 3Y | 4.85% | +3 bp | -9 bp |
| 5Y | 4.94% | +5 bp | — |
| 7Y | 5.04% | +6 bp | +10 bp |
| 10Y | 5.15% | +6 bp | +21 bp |
| 20Y | 5.53% | +6 bp | +59 bp |
| 30Y | 5.48% | +5 bp | +54 bp |
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury daily par yield curve — official public-domain U.S. government data, published once per business day. This page is information, not investment advice; see our disclaimer.