The "capture" trade: buy a stock the day before its ex-dividend date, receive the dividend, sell when the price recovers to where you bought. If recovery happens fast enough, you collected the dividend as a near-riskless cycle.
What the data shows: most ex-date drops match the dividend amount to within a fraction of a percent (the market prices dividends in efficiently). But recovery time varies wildly — some tickers recover in days, others take weeks or never recover within 90 days. The differentiated tickers are the ones with both high recovery rates AND fast median recovery.
Caveats: these stats are descriptive of history, not predictive. Real-world capture also pays commissions and taxes — short-term gains often disqualify the dividend from qualified-rate treatment. Treat this as a research tool, not a recipe.
| Ticker | Recovery Rate▼ | Med Recovery | IQR | Capture Yield | Med Ex Drop | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MODL | 100.0% | 2d | 1–6d | 0.08% | +0.10% | 47/47 |
| DIVL | 100.0% | 3d | 2–12d | 0.17% | -0.25% | 34/34 |
| IRTR | 100.0% | 3d | 1–12d | 0.27% | -0.21% | 32/32 |
| SFLO | 100.0% | 3d | 2–14d | 0.10% | -0.15% | 31/31 |
| DIVG | 100.0% | 1d | 1–4d | 0.31% | -0.03% | 30/30 |
| DUSL | 100.0% | 2d | 1–14d | 0.72% | +0.18% | 28/28 |
| JQUA | 100.0% | 5d | 2–11d | 0.34% | -0.15% | 28/28 |
| FIDU | 100.0% | 4d | 3–8d | 0.33% | -0.74% | 28/28 |
| QLV | 100.0% | 7d | 4–14d | 0.37% | -0.60% | 28/28 |
| FCPI | 100.0% | 4d | 3–15d | 0.46% | -0.71% | 28/28 |
| SCHV | 100.0% | 6d | 2–16d | 1.46% | -0.79% | 28/28 |
| GSIE | 100.0% | 3d | 1–7d | 0.67% | -0.22% | 27/27 |
| HLAL | 100.0% | 2d | 1–6d | 0.20% | +0.06% | 27/27 |
| HD | 100.0% | 2d | 1–21d | 0.61% | -0.74% | 27/27 |
| GFF | 100.0% | 3d | 1–8d | 0.30% | -0.43% | 27/27 |
| FXO | 100.0% | 4d | 1–9d | 0.63% | -0.19% | 27/27 |
| GNTX | 100.0% | 1d | 1–5d | 0.43% | -0.14% | 27/27 |
| ICFI | 100.0% | 4d | 1–26d | 0.15% | -0.38% | 27/27 |
| FNDX | 100.0% | 5d | 1–14d | 1.23% | -0.64% | 27/27 |
| FSMD | 100.0% | 4d | 4–14d | 0.36% | -0.88% | 27/27 |
| FMAT | 100.0% | 4d | 4–22d | 0.45% | -0.89% | 27/27 |
| FQAL | 100.0% | 4d | 3–14d | 0.35% | -0.55% | 27/27 |
| FVD | 100.0% | 4d | 1–6d | 0.57% | -0.17% | 27/27 |
| FXD | 100.0% | 3d | 1–7d | 0.20% | -0.13% | 27/27 |
| DNL | 100.0% | 4d | 1–8d | 0.62% | -0.58% | 27/27 |
| FXU | 100.0% | 4d | 1–6d | 0.66% | -0.27% | 27/27 |
| BLK | 100.0% | 7d | 1–33d | 0.60% | -0.87% | 27/27 |
| BPOP | 100.0% | 3d | 1–5d | 0.74% | -0.78% | 27/27 |
| AMAT | 100.0% | 2d | 1–7d | 0.22% | +0.06% | 27/27 |
| HCC | 100.0% | 3d | 1–9d | 0.19% | +1.00% | 27/27 |
| ESGG | 100.0% | 4d | 4–12d | 0.41% | -0.78% | 27/27 |
| FNCL | 100.0% | 5d | 4–18d | 0.51% | -0.89% | 27/27 |
| FTEC | 100.0% | 4d | 3–8d | 0.18% | -0.53% | 27/27 |
| ECL | 100.0% | 4d | 1–15d | 0.27% | -0.25% | 27/27 |
| FDMO | 100.0% | 4d | 3–8d | 0.21% | -0.43% | 27/27 |
| APH | 100.0% | 2d | 1–8d | 0.92% | +0.27% | 27/27 |
| CASY | 100.0% | 4d | 3–8d | 0.15% | -0.34% | 27/27 |
| FDLO | 100.0% | 4d | 3–13d | 0.36% | -0.70% | 27/27 |
| FDIS | 100.0% | 3d | 3–4d | 0.20% | -0.48% | 27/27 |
| BWFG | 100.0% | 3d | 1–6d | 0.64% | -0.06% | 27/27 |
| DEUS | 100.0% | 4d | 3–14d | 0.39% | -0.96% | 27/27 |
| ESG | 100.0% | 4d | 3–12d | 0.30% | -0.61% | 27/27 |
| DDIV | 100.0% | 4d | 1–10d | 0.67% | -0.41% | 27/27 |
| FNDB | 100.0% | 5d | 2–17d | 1.19% | -0.67% | 27/27 |
| EUDV | 100.0% | 6d | 1–11d | 0.47% | -0.76% | 27/27 |
| ESGV | 100.0% | 4d | 3–12d | 0.29% | -0.56% | 27/27 |
| EPS | 100.0% | 5d | 2–11d | 0.43% | -0.26% | 27/27 |
| BFC | 100.0% | 2d | 1–7d | 0.35% | -0.39% | 27/27 |
| CHD | 100.0% | 3d | 1–5d | 0.30% | -0.08% | 27/27 |
| AMGN | 100.0% | 16d | 3–38d | 0.76% | -0.69% | 27/27 |
| Ticker | Med Recovery▲ | IQR | Recovery Rate | Capture Yield | Med Ex Drop | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABT | 1d | 1–4d | 81.5% | 0.45% | -0.79% | 22/27 |
| ACA | 1d | 1–5d | 96.3% | 0.08% | -0.03% | 26/27 |
| AGI | 1d | 1–4d | 84.6% | 0.21% | +0.58% | 22/26 |
| APA | 1d | 1–4d | 80.0% | 0.64% | -0.22% | 20/25 |
| AWI | 1d | 1–11d | 96.3% | 0.25% | 0.00% | 26/27 |
| BABW | 1d | 1–3d | 77.8% | 0.81% | -0.62% | 35/45 |
| AVGW | 1d | 1–4d | 87.7% | 1.06% | -0.84% | 50/57 |
| ARMW | 1d | 1–4d | 84.4% | 1.30% | -1.13% | 38/45 |
| AROW | 1d | 1–7d | 92.6% | 0.98% | -0.70% | 25/27 |
| AMDW | 1d | 1–4d | 94.7% | 1.29% | -0.30% | 54/57 |
| AA | 1d | 1–3d | 90.0% | 0.26% | +0.29% | 18/20 |
| BRO | 1d | 1–5d | 100.0% | 0.18% | +0.30% | 27/27 |
| BSY | 1d | 1–3d | 95.7% | 0.11% | -0.22% | 22/23 |
| CAC | 1d | 1–10d | 92.6% | 0.99% | -0.14% | 25/27 |
| CASH | 1d | 1–6d | 85.2% | 0.10% | -0.32% | 23/27 |
| CGAU | 1d | 1–5d | 95.5% | 0.95% | -1.07% | 21/22 |
| CHCO | 1d | 1–6d | 92.6% | 0.74% | -0.41% | 25/27 |
| CNRG | 1d | 1–7d | 88.5% | 0.35% | -0.08% | 23/26 |
| CSL | 1d | 1–7d | 88.9% | 0.29% | -0.24% | 24/27 |
| CTSH | 1d | 1–7d | 84.6% | 0.40% | -0.36% | 22/26 |
| CURE | 1d | 1–6d | 90.9% | 0.26% | -0.18% | 20/22 |
| CWB | 1d | 1–4d | 93.5% | 0.17% | +0.14% | 72/77 |
| DDS | 1d | 1–3d | 96.0% | 0.12% | +0.28% | 24/25 |
| DEI | 1d | 1–4d | 88.0% | 1.24% | -0.21% | 22/25 |
| DIG | 1d | 1–6d | 95.5% | 1.86% | -1.15% | 21/22 |
| DIVG | 1d | 1–4d | 100.0% | 0.31% | -0.03% | 30/30 |
| DWAS | 1d | 1–3d | 100.0% | 0.16% | +0.41% | 22/22 |
| EDGX | 1d | 1–2d | 96.5% | 0.17% | -0.25% | 28/29 |
| EFAA | 1d | 1–6d | 90.9% | 0.70% | -0.41% | 20/22 |
| EHCC | 1d | 1–3d | 72.7% | 0.64% | +0.18% | 16/22 |
| ENSG | 1d | 1–4d | 100.0% | 0.06% | +0.59% | 25/25 |
| EPC | 1d | 1–13d | 95.8% | 0.46% | -0.16% | 23/24 |
| EURL | 1d | 1–9d | 95.2% | 0.60% | +0.62% | 20/21 |
| FANG | 1d | 1–8d | 95.8% | 0.61% | -0.41% | 23/24 |
| FITE | 1d | 1–3d | 100.0% | 0.12% | +0.36% | 25/25 |
| ERX | 1d | 1–8d | 92.0% | 0.64% | -0.35% | 23/25 |
| FNV | 1d | 1–2d | 96.2% | 0.23% | +0.39% | 25/26 |
| FNWB | 1d | 1–3d | 72.7% | 0.50% | -0.39% | 16/22 |
| FSBW | 1d | 1–4d | 84.6% | 0.74% | -0.31% | 22/26 |
| FSV | 1d | 1–3d | 91.7% | 0.15% | +0.23% | 22/24 |
| GBX | 1d | 1–5d | 92.6% | 0.77% | -0.68% | 25/27 |
| GDXW | 1d | 1–3d | 90.9% | 0.98% | -1.55% | 40/44 |
| GNTX | 1d | 1–5d | 100.0% | 0.43% | -0.14% | 27/27 |
| GOOW | 1d | 1–9d | 87.7% | 0.80% | -0.21% | 50/57 |
| GOVZ | 1d | 1–4d | 71.9% | 0.10% | -0.06% | 46/64 |
| GPRK | 1d | 1–6d | 91.7% | 0.94% | +0.18% | 22/24 |
| GHC | 1d | 1–10d | 100.0% | 0.25% | -0.24% | 26/26 |
| GVA | 1d | 1–3d | 95.8% | 0.36% | +0.23% | 23/24 |
| HAIL | 1d | 1–3d | 88.5% | 0.45% | -0.37% | 23/26 |
| HAL | 1d | 1–3d | 92.6% | 0.43% | -1.15% | 25/27 |
| Ticker | Capture Yield▼ | Recovery Rate | Med Recovery | Med Ex Drop | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO | 5.26% | 100.0% | 3d | -0.93% | 26/26 |
| ZVOL | 5.03% | 17.4% | 14d | -4.23% | 4/23 |
| ARI | 4.67% | 80.0% | 8d | -1.41% | 20/25 |
| HDV | 4.21% | 92.9% | 13d | -0.97% | 26/28 |
| IEP | 4.05% | 46.2% | 56d | -4.96% | 12/26 |
| CHMI | 3.96% | 60.0% | 26d | -4.47% | 15/25 |
| NHTC | 3.66% | 38.5% | 72d | -5.82% | 10/26 |
| VOC | 3.66% | 62.5% | 20d | -4.99% | 15/24 |
| NRIM | 3.47% | 81.5% | 5d | -0.97% | 22/27 |
| FLNG | 3.41% | 79.2% | 16d | -3.19% | 19/24 |
| TRTX | 3.38% | 88.5% | 13d | -2.76% | 23/26 |
| TPVG | 3.35% | 73.9% | 34d | -4.34% | 17/23 |
| OFS | 3.35% | 59.3% | 49d | -5.71% | 16/27 |
| ICL | 3.35% | 85.2% | 2d | +0.11% | 23/27 |
| ICMB | 3.22% | 50.0% | 61d | -6.12% | 10/20 |
| ACRE | 3.20% | 85.0% | 15d | -2.78% | 17/20 |
| AOMR | 3.16% | 76.2% | 26d | -4.29% | 16/21 |
| UAN | 3.14% | 81.0% | 9d | -2.61% | 17/21 |
| TCPC | 3.14% | 84.0% | 37d | -3.22% | 21/25 |
| AFCG | 3.13% | 55.0% | 26d | -5.45% | 11/20 |
| SACH | 3.05% | 53.8% | 11d | -4.52% | 14/26 |
| WHF | 2.96% | 53.8% | 22d | -4.58% | 14/26 |
| CTO | 2.96% | 81.5% | 18d | -1.97% | 22/27 |
| IVR | 2.92% | 68.8% | 14d | -3.77% | 22/32 |
| GSBD | 2.92% | 73.9% | 23d | -3.26% | 17/23 |
| PMT | 2.90% | 80.0% | 10d | -2.97% | 20/25 |
| ETCO | 2.90% | 60.9% | 6d | -3.69% | 14/23 |
| MORT | 2.84% | 69.2% | 11d | -3.47% | 18/26 |
| GNL | 2.82% | 85.2% | 5d | -2.76% | 23/27 |
| ABR | 2.79% | 63.0% | 18d | -3.19% | 17/27 |
| NREF | 2.78% | 70.8% | 27d | -3.86% | 17/24 |
| SMCY | 2.78% | 78.7% | 6d | -3.28% | 48/61 |
| KLAC | 2.78% | 96.2% | 3d | +0.11% | 25/26 |
| DMLP | 2.77% | 87.0% | 14d | -4.52% | 20/23 |
| RC | 2.76% | 84.0% | 3d | -2.50% | 21/25 |
| IFN | 2.76% | 63.0% | 17d | -2.90% | 17/27 |
| BRSP | 2.74% | 85.7% | 6d | -2.11% | 18/21 |
| NLY | 2.73% | 72.0% | 11d | -3.15% | 18/25 |
| BCSF | 2.71% | 79.2% | 25d | -2.76% | 19/24 |
| CCAP | 2.70% | 88.0% | 14d | -2.28% | 22/25 |
| USAC | 2.70% | 80.8% | 16d | -3.22% | 21/26 |
| KREF | 2.68% | 73.1% | 9d | -2.50% | 19/26 |
| BIZD | 2.67% | 92.3% | 14d | -2.35% | 24/26 |
| NMFC | 2.67% | 68.2% | 16d | -2.46% | 15/22 |
| HQL | 2.67% | 63.0% | 12d | -2.94% | 17/27 |
| KRP | 2.66% | 92.0% | 10d | -2.13% | 23/25 |
| CAPL | 2.65% | 66.7% | 25d | -4.73% | 18/27 |
| BITO | 2.65% | 82.0% | 5d | -2.15% | 32/39 |
| NRT | 2.64% | 80.8% | 13d | -5.13% | 21/26 |
| DXJ | 2.62% | 100.0% | 7d | -0.40% | 20/20 |