Dividend Capture Lab

We measured every ex-dividend event of every US dividend payer over the last decade. This is the result.

The "capture" trade: buy a stock the day before its ex-dividend date, receive the dividend, sell when the price recovers to where you bought. If recovery happens fast enough, you collected the dividend as a near-riskless cycle.

What the data shows: most ex-date drops match the dividend amount to within a fraction of a percent (the market prices dividends in efficiently). But recovery time varies wildly — some tickers recover in days, others take weeks or never recover within 90 days. The differentiated tickers are the ones with both high recovery rates AND fast median recovery.

Caveats: these stats are descriptive of history, not predictive. Real-world capture also pays commissions and taxes — short-term gains often disqualify the dividend from qualified-rate treatment. Treat this as a research tool, not a recipe.

Highest Recovery Rate

Tickers where the price most reliably climbs back to the pre-ex-date close within 90 days. Minimum 20 events for statistical signal.

Ticker	Recovery Rate▼	Med Recovery	IQR	Capture Yield	Med Ex Drop	Events
CHPY	100.0%	3d	1–10d	0.78%	-0.09%	56/56
MODL	100.0%	2d	1–6d	0.08%	+0.10%	42/42
GOOW	100.0%	1d	1–9d	0.86%	-0.44%	39/39
DIVZ	100.0%	3d	1–7d	0.46%	-0.17%	36/36
DIVL	100.0%	3d	2–6d	0.17%	-0.16%	30/30
IRTR	100.0%	3d	1–13d	0.26%	-0.23%	29/29
SFLO	100.0%	4d	2–18d	0.10%	-0.15%	27/27
PFBC	100.0%	2d	1–8d	0.78%	-0.84%	26/26
NVT	100.0%	4d	1–12d	0.46%	-0.71%	26/26
DOL	100.0%	7d	4–14d	0.87%	-0.64%	26/26
UDR	100.0%	5d	3–7d	0.97%	-0.80%	26/26
MEI	100.0%	4d	1–8d	0.63%	+0.26%	26/26
UNM	100.0%	5d	3–8d	0.92%	-0.33%	26/26
SCHV	100.0%	6d	2–14d	1.54%	-0.79%	26/26
HCC	100.0%	3d	1–9d	0.19%	+0.43%	26/26
FCPI	100.0%	4d	3–13d	0.48%	-0.78%	26/26
NRG	100.0%	4d	2–7d	0.72%	-0.36%	26/26
QLV	100.0%	6d	3–14d	0.37%	-0.67%	26/26
CASY	100.0%	4d	3–7d	0.15%	-0.36%	26/26
FIDU	100.0%	4d	3–9d	0.34%	-0.84%	26/26
GNTX	100.0%	1d	1–5d	0.43%	-0.13%	26/26
DUSL	100.0%	2d	1–16d	0.77%	+0.18%	26/26
JQUA	100.0%	3d	1–10d	0.34%	-0.13%	26/26
TRN	100.0%	5d	1–15d	0.94%	-0.18%	26/26
FDRR	100.0%	6d	4–18d	0.69%	-1.06%	25/25
BWFG	100.0%	3d	1–5d	0.66%	-0.06%	25/25
AXP	100.0%	4d	1–5d	0.33%	-0.42%	25/25
FDLO	100.0%	4d	3–13d	0.37%	-0.81%	25/25
AIG	100.0%	6d	2–12d	0.65%	-0.15%	25/25
FDMO	100.0%	4d	3–11d	0.22%	-0.52%	25/25
FDVV	100.0%	7d	4–21d	0.84%	-1.38%	25/25
DIVG	100.0%	1d	1–4d	0.32%	-0.05%	25/25
DDIV	100.0%	4d	1–13d	0.69%	-0.41%	25/25
CHD	100.0%	3d	1–5d	0.30%	-0.08%	25/25
BLK	100.0%	6d	1–29d	0.60%	-0.72%	25/25
DGRO	100.0%	8d	2–22d	0.59%	-0.74%	25/25
BPOP	100.0%	2d	1–5d	0.76%	-1.03%	25/25
ECL	100.0%	4d	1–15d	0.27%	-0.25%	25/25
FDIS	100.0%	3d	3–4d	0.20%	-0.48%	25/25
DSI	100.0%	3d	1–13d	0.35%	-0.38%	25/25
BFC	100.0%	2d	1–8d	0.35%	-0.39%	25/25
COWZ	100.0%	5d	1–14d	0.53%	-0.74%	25/25
DNL	100.0%	4d	1–8d	0.65%	-0.59%	25/25
EUDV	100.0%	6d	1–10d	0.45%	-0.76%	25/25
ARMK	100.0%	3d	1–7d	0.31%	0.00%	25/25
DIVB	100.0%	7d	2–22d	0.62%	-0.92%	25/25
EUSA	100.0%	5d	1–10d	0.40%	-0.60%	25/25
CRS	100.0%	2d	1–4d	0.42%	-0.21%	25/25
DEUS	100.0%	4d	3–13d	0.39%	-0.96%	25/25
EZM	100.0%	3d	1–5d	0.36%	-0.11%	25/25

Fastest Recovery

Ticker recovers in the fewest trading days on average. Filtered to recovery rate ≥ 70% to avoid 'fast but unreliable' names.

Ticker	Med Recovery▲	IQR	Recovery Rate	Capture Yield	Med Ex Drop	Events
ABT	1d	1–5d	80.8%	0.44%	-0.91%	21/26
ACA	1d	1–4d	96.2%	0.08%	+0.07%	25/26
AGI	1d	1–4d	87.5%	0.22%	+0.58%	21/24
AMDW	1d	1–3d	94.9%	1.26%	-0.38%	37/39
AJG	1d	1–6d	84.0%	0.29%	-0.35%	21/25
AAPW	1d	1–7d	88.3%	0.64%	-0.31%	53/60
APA	1d	1–4d	79.2%	0.64%	-0.58%	19/24
ARCB	1d	1–7d	92.0%	0.16%	-1.20%	23/25
ARMW	1d	1–6d	81.5%	1.12%	-0.61%	22/27
AROW	1d	1–6d	92.0%	1.00%	-0.70%	23/25
ASTE	1d	1–7d	92.0%	0.29%	-1.02%	23/25
AWI	1d	1–10d	96.0%	0.25%	0.00%	24/25
BABW	1d	1–4d	77.8%	0.82%	-0.73%	21/27
BRO	1d	1–4d	100.0%	0.18%	+0.37%	25/25
BSY	1d	1–3d	95.2%	0.10%	-0.20%	20/21
CAC	1d	1–10d	92.3%	1.00%	-0.42%	24/26
CASH	1d	1–6d	84.0%	0.10%	-0.34%	21/25
CGAU	1d	1–7d	95.0%	1.01%	-1.54%	19/20
CHCO	1d	1–6d	88.5%	0.74%	-0.46%	23/26
CNRG	1d	1–8d	91.7%	0.35%	-0.30%	22/24
COII	1d	1–8d	76.1%	0.72%	-1.44%	35/46
CP	1d	1–5d	95.7%	0.36%	-0.30%	22/23
CSL	1d	1–8d	88.0%	0.29%	-0.29%	22/25
CURE	1d	1–6d	90.0%	0.26%	-0.27%	18/20
CWB	1d	1–4d	94.5%	0.18%	+0.14%	69/73
CWII	1d	1–3d	100.0%	0.75%	-0.62%	25/25
DDS	1d	1–4d	95.8%	0.12%	+0.43%	23/24
DEI	1d	1–4d	87.5%	1.23%	-0.24%	21/24
DIG	1d	1–6d	95.0%	2.01%	-1.15%	19/20
DIVG	1d	1–4d	100.0%	0.32%	-0.05%	25/25
DWAS	1d	1–3d	100.0%	0.17%	+0.23%	21/21
EBC	1d	1–14d	85.7%	0.66%	-0.80%	18/21
ELS	1d	1–5d	91.3%	0.65%	-0.38%	21/23
ENSG	1d	1–4d	100.0%	0.06%	+0.57%	24/24
EPC	1d	1–12d	95.5%	0.44%	-0.16%	21/22
EQAL	1d	1–10d	100.0%	0.46%	-0.34%	23/23
ERX	1d	1–7d	91.3%	0.67%	-0.35%	21/23
FAS	1d	1–8d	100.0%	0.61%	-0.19%	24/24
FCCO	1d	1–7d	92.0%	0.67%	-0.11%	23/25
FCF	1d	1–5d	92.0%	0.91%	-0.67%	23/25
FITE	1d	1–3d	100.0%	0.13%	+0.36%	23/23
FNV	1d	1–2d	95.8%	0.24%	+0.79%	23/24
FNWB	1d	1–3d	72.7%	0.50%	-0.39%	16/22
FSBW	1d	1–4d	84.0%	0.74%	-0.14%	21/25
FSV	1d	1–3d	91.3%	0.15%	+0.38%	21/23
GBCI	1d	1–5d	92.0%	0.76%	-0.47%	23/25
GDXW	1d	1–2d	92.3%	0.99%	-1.10%	24/26
GHC	1d	1–6d	100.0%	0.26%	-0.24%	25/25
GLDW	1d	1–2d	80.8%	0.54%	-0.60%	21/26
GNTX	1d	1–5d	100.0%	0.43%	-0.13%	26/26

Best Capture Yield per Cycle

Average per-cycle return when capture succeeds. Higher yield × high recovery rate = compounding income.

Ticker	Capture Yield▼	Recovery Rate	Med Recovery	Med Ex Drop	Events
AVGO	5.68%	100.0%	3d	-0.93%	24/24
HDV	4.72%	92.0%	13d	-1.06%	23/25
IEP	4.05%	50.0%	56d	-4.96%	12/24
MVO	3.95%	64.0%	51d	-6.38%	16/25
CHMI	3.94%	58.3%	22d	-4.71%	14/24
NRIM	3.75%	80.0%	5d	-1.11%	20/25
NHTC	3.66%	40.0%	72d	-6.33%	10/25
SMCY	3.53%	70.7%	8d	-4.46%	29/41
FLNG	3.53%	77.3%	22d	-3.31%	17/22
ICL	3.46%	88.0%	2d	+0.11%	22/25
TRTX	3.35%	87.5%	13d	-2.84%	21/24
VOC	3.32%	60.9%	31d	-4.88%	14/23
TPVG	3.29%	76.2%	31d	-2.96%	16/21
ICMB	3.22%	50.0%	61d	-6.12%	10/20
OFS	3.21%	56.0%	49d	-5.61%	14/25
IVR	3.14%	67.9%	14d	-4.12%	19/28
SACH	3.05%	58.3%	11d	-4.52%	14/24
ARI	3.04%	82.6%	8d	-1.41%	19/23
CTO	3.01%	84.0%	23d	-1.97%	21/25
BITO	3.01%	80.0%	6d	-2.15%	28/35
TCPC	3.00%	82.6%	37d	-3.07%	19/23
WHF	2.93%	54.2%	22d	-4.58%	13/24
PMT	2.90%	83.3%	10d	-2.89%	20/24
AIPI	2.90%	63.6%	15d	-2.48%	14/22
MARO	2.89%	68.4%	4d	-3.07%	26/38
GSBD	2.89%	72.7%	21d	-3.45%	16/22
LFT	2.87%	70.0%	16d	-2.73%	14/20
RC	2.87%	83.3%	4d	-2.70%	20/24
GNL	2.85%	84.6%	6d	-2.86%	22/26
MORT	2.84%	72.0%	11d	-3.36%	18/25
NVDY	2.81%	76.8%	7d	-2.50%	43/56
ABR	2.79%	68.0%	18d	-3.02%	17/25
NREF	2.76%	72.7%	30d	-3.64%	16/22
KREF	2.75%	72.0%	10d	-2.39%	18/25
BRSP	2.73%	85.0%	6d	-2.27%	17/20
USAC	2.73%	80.0%	17d	-3.23%	20/25
IFN	2.73%	64.0%	17d	-2.82%	16/25
BIZD	2.71%	92.0%	13d	-2.36%	23/25
NLY	2.70%	70.8%	8d	-3.09%	17/24
CCAP	2.68%	87.5%	13d	-2.27%	21/24
DMLP	2.68%	86.4%	14d	-4.15%	19/22
BCSF	2.68%	81.8%	23d	-2.72%	18/22
CAPL	2.67%	65.4%	27d	-4.82%	17/26
MAAY	2.66%	26.1%	3d	-2.83%	6/23
TRIN	2.66%	80.0%	8d	-2.56%	16/20
PLTY	2.65%	82.0%	5d	-2.85%	32/39
IOYY	2.65%	39.1%	4d	-2.65%	9/23
CNQ	2.64%	87.5%	6d	-1.81%	21/24
HQL	2.64%	64.0%	12d	-2.94%	16/25
NMFC	2.64%	70.0%	16d	-2.45%	14/20

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